Commentary Series - Payne Institute for Public Policy

Interest Group Power and the Passage of Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA): A Multiple Streams Approach 8/4/2022

Interest Group Power and the Passage of Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA): A Multiple Streams Approach

Payne Institute Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how after about 20 years of slow and staggered progress, Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) was ratified into law in 2021 and became the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). This paper examines the dynamic political context in which the bill finally came into being through the lens of the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF). It identifies the key interest groups in the context of the bill’s passage and describes the changes in the preference enforcement power of these groups that opened the way for the passage of the bill. Finally, it sheds light on the PIA’s survival prospects after the 2023 presidential elections based on the backgrounds of the top candidates and their likely policy inclinations. August 4, 2022.

A View from the Ground Along the Proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) Route 7/15/2022

A View from the Ground Along the Proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) Route

Payne Institute ESG Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how the proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) has been conceived to transport gas from the Niger delta in Nigeria, across Niger and Algeria to supply Europe as it reduces its dependence on Russian gas while transitioning to lower carbon energy. Technical risks to the pipeline’s success can also be substantially mitigated through engineering studies before the final investment decision is made. A case can be made that beyond these latter risk categories, that there would be residual risks to the TSGP’s success that are non-market and non-technical in nature. July 15, 2022.

Clearing the Non-Technical Hurdles for CCS 7/15/2022

Clearing the Non-Technical Hurdles for CCS

Payne Institute Communications Associate Brooke Bowser, Sustainable Finance Lab Program Manager Brad Handler, CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the oil and gas industry began injecting carbon dioxide into the ground in the 1970s as a technique to produce more oil (now called enhanced oil recovery), but today there is a renewed interest in CO2 injection for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects — this time as a way to address climate change. Despite CCS technology itself being decades-old, persistent regulatory and liability questions paired with limited economic viability threaten development, even as the industry appears to be gathering momentum for large-scale growth. July 15, 2022.

Critical Minerals and Security: A Look at Gallium

Payne Institute Advanced Energy Systems student Peyton Sanders writes about how gallium plays a vital role in the development of critical defense and energy technologies, and demand is growing. The US is entirely dependent for its gallium needs on imports from countries such as China – raising concerns around supply chain security. Before being recognized as a strategic critical metal during the mid-twentieth century, Gallium was most often used in high temperature thermometry, barometers, and heat transfer systems. This soft, silvery metal was attractive due to having one of the largest liquid-state ranges of any metal and a very low vapor pressure, but its low reactivity and low toxicity are what made it the safer, more environmentally friendly option compared to similarly performing elements. As a result, the US Department of Defense has since committed to $30 million in funding to break free from strategic mineral reliance on China. July 5, 2022.

Less is More: The Impact of Auto Lender Risk on Household Auto Purchases

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange, Payne Institute Researcher Caitlin McKennie, and Mirko Moro write about how credit risk can be an impediment to new auto purchases, especially for electric vehicles. This paper looks at the elimination of auto loan cramdowns for Chapter 13 bankruptcy proceedings, where the loan value is made equal to the auto value, on three outcomes: auto value, likelihood of new auto, and loan-to-value ratio of new autos. Using a difference-in-difference approach based on a state’s historical use of Chapter 13 bankruptcy, we show that household’s secure better loan-to-value ratios and acquire higher valued autos due to lower credit risk following the reform. July 5, 2022.

Metal Market Analysis: An Empirical Model for Copper Supply and Demand 6/29/22

Metal Market Analysis: An Empirical Model for Copper Supply and Demand

Payne Institute student Sayeh Shojaeinia writes about how copper is expected to play a big role in the global move to renewable energy over the next decade, as solar, wind, and electric vehicles increase. Understanding the metal market and forecasting price changes can help players plan for future changes in supply and demand. Developing dynamic models of demand and supply requires considering price elasticity. In static prediction models, price elasticity is ignored, and the future quantity demanded is predicted without taking into consideration the relationship between price and quantity. A framework is proposed to determine the price elasticity of supply and demand of copper from 1990 to 2020 using production, consumption, and price data. The presented results show that both supply and demand price elasticities in the copper market are small but statistically significant. In this situation, rather than no change in price, there would be a small change in price, and thus, a small change in quantity demanded. June 29, 2022.

Can African countries benefit from the coming boom in battery minerals demand? 6/27/2022

Can African countries benefit from the coming boom in battery minerals demand?

Payne Institute Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how many African nations are falling further behind developed countries in providing economic opportunities for their citizens despite having substantial mineral and energy endowments. Accepting the view that increasing commodity exports can help close the gap, this commentary examines the availability of cobalt, lithium, and nickel resources, reserves and production in African countries and their potential for meeting the future demand for electric vehicle batteries. June 27, 2022.

The Dimming of Lights in Afghanistan 2022 versus 2021 6/24/2022

The Dimming of Lights in Afghanistan 2022 versus 2021

Payne Institute’s Earth Observation Group Senior Research Associate Christopher Elvidge and Research Associates Tilottama Ghosh and Mikhail Zhizhin write a Commentary “The Dimming Lights in Afghanistan 2022 versus 2021”. Included is a color composite image to identify Afghanistan cities or towns where the lighting has dimmed during the first part of 2022 relative to a year ago using VIIRS day / night band cloud-free average radiances. June 24, 2022.

Challenges in Accurately Tracking Copper Trade Flows 6/9/2022

Challenges in Accurately Tracking Copper Trade Flows

Payne Institute Mineral Supply Chain Researcher Zach Krause writes about how copper is among the most heavily traded commodities world-wide. The trade volume of copper in combination with the environmental impact of the mining industry has drawn increased attention to the processing and trade of copper and other primary metals. Moreover, copper is a metal that is essential to the energy transition as a component of renewable technologies. June 9, 2022.

Synergies Between Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration and Geothermal Power in Sedimentary Basins 6/7/2022

Synergies Between Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration and Geothermal Power in Sedimentary Basins

Payne Institute CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield and Eric Stautberg write about how to achieve a rapid and effective energy transition, society will need to widely deploy both existing and emerging technologies and tools. Mitigating the emissions of greenhouse gases while maintaining the world’s growing demands for energy will require these to deployed at great pace and scale. Natural synergies exist between two such technologies: carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS) projects and geothermal power generation from hot sedimentary aquifers. The overlapping technical and operational components of these projects underline an opportunity for cost savings and accelerated deployment. June 7, 2022.

The Solar Investment Tax Credit: Inequitable Distribution to Low-and-Moderate-Income Residents 5/26/22

The Solar Investment Tax Credit: Inequitable Distribution to Low-and-Moderate-Income Residents

Payne Institute and Mines Advanced Energy Systems student Lyle Vaz writes about how decarbonizing the electric grid has been a key effort in trying to prevent the worst impacts of anthropogenic climate change. The traditional centralized power grid of the past has seen an increasing replacement of fossil fuel-based power plants with generation from renewable energy (RE) sources. While improvement in PV technology and the corresponding decline in costs are the main reasons for this growth in the utility-scale PV space, residential projects suffer because of relatively high upfront capital costs to the stakeholder (homeowner, with much lower income than corporations), and the federal incentive that applies here, the solar investment tax credit (ITC), is scheduled to expire starting in 2024 . May 26, 2022.

Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act: An Assessment on the Path Forward for Energy 5/24/22

Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act: An Assessment on the Path Forward for Energy

Payne Institute and Mines Advanced Energy Systems student Jasey Diaz writes about how after the devastation of Hurricane Maria, the unreliable, unsustainable, and unaffordable energy system and utility of Puerto Rico was truly highlighted. This gave way to the Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act in April 2019. This act provides the means to establish an effective programming that allows for the setting of clear parameters and goals for energy efficiency, meeting the Renewable Portfolio Standard, the interconnection of distributed generators and microgrids, wheeling, and management of electricity demand. Thus far, the utility in power has been dissolved and a new management put into place. However, it appears that it is all that has been accomplished. May 24, 2022.

Is the Army’s New Climate Strategy Economically Feasible? 5/19/22

Is the Army’s New Climate Strategy Economically Feasible?

Payne Institute and Mines Advanced Energy Systems student Jeffrey A. Ginther writes about how as climate change affects weather patterns and triggers extreme weather events around the world, the United States Army has responded to provide stability to unstable regions as well as humanitarian and disaster relief operations. As one of the world’s largest emitters, the U.S. Army is part of the cause for these events. That is partly why the U.S. Army has sought to decrease emissions through the development of the Army Climate Strategy. This paper discusses the objectives and possible methods of the Army Climate Strategy to determine if the new strategy to defeat climate change is feasible or just a gimmick to draw the world’s attention away from such a major emitter. May 19, 2022.

Water Security Issues for Lithium Mining in Chile 5/17/2022

Water Security Issues for Lithium Mining in Chile

Payne Institute Communications Associate Eleanor Igwe writes about how due to lithium’s central role in electric vehicle batteries, its demand is predicted to continue a steep rise and likely reach the level of two to four million metric tons by 2030. In addition to the stresses this will put on mining production and the environment – issues of water security are likely to become a key challenge. May 17, 2022.

Offshore Wind in the United States: An Analysis of President Biden’s 30 GW by 2030 Goal 5/13/22

Offshore Wind in the United States: An Analysis of President Biden’s 30 GW by 2030 Goal

Payne Institute and Mines Advanced Energy Systems student Tina Ortega writes about how the introduction of offshore wind energy in the United States is an important step in achieving long-term clean energy goals and reducing the reliance of imported energy. One study shows that installing 86 Gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2050 can reduce cumulative greenhouse gasses by 1.8%, reduce water consumption in the energy sector by 5%, and support approximately 160,000 jobs throughout the country (Gilman et al., 2016). The advantages of offshore wind compared to onshore wind are plentiful. May 13, 2022.

Corporate ESG Commitments are Gaining Popularity. Can They be Trusted?

Payne Institute Communications Associate Elsa Barron, Payne Institute Program Manager Jordy Lee, and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about the growing concerns about the long-term sustainability of many industries have led to big changes in approaches to corporate strategies and management. Pressure from financiers is adding to the momentum. Concerns about climate related financial risks and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data, have helped create demand from bankers for companies to show that they are actively working towards global climate goals. May 9, 2022.

How Artificial Intelligence Can Accelerate Geothermal Investment 4/29/2022

How Artificial Intelligence Can Accelerate Geothermal Investment

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Sebnem Düzgün, Payne Institute Communications Associate Elsa Barron, and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about how in the midst of the global energy transition, geothermal operations promise to provide stable, renewable energy, so why aren’t more investors taking the bait? One of the major roadblocks for geothermal investment is the high level of uncertainty that accompanies the subsurface resource. April 29, 2022.

How Recycling Critical Minerals Can Ensure a Future for Lithium-Ion Batteries 4/22/22

How Recycling Critical Minerals Can Ensure a Future for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Payne Institute and Mines Advanced Energy Systems student Karlyle Munz writes about how new policies are needed in order to ensure long-term availability of the critical minerals and metals involved in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries. The utilization rates of these minerals have increased exponentially in the recent past and further shortages in critical minerals could stunt growth in hundreds of industries. The main critical minerals discussed in this paper are those involved in the construction of the now ubiquitous, lithium-ion battery. Many roadblocks exist in the current recycling process that prevent the general public and large manufacturers from properly disposing of these batteries and devices including a lack of incentives for following recycling procedures. April 21, 2022.

A Critical Minerals Policy Option for the U.S. 4/19/2022

A Critical Minerals Policy Option for the U.S.

Payne Institute Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how the U.S.’s current policies may be insufficient to meet its strategic goal of supply chain resilience and unfettered access to critical minerals needed for its economic growth and military deterrence purposes. He proposes an additional policy approach to further enrich ongoing discussions about this very important and strategic sector. April 19, 2022.

Fireside Chats with Gaia 4/4/2022

Fireside Chats with Gaia

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow James Crompton wrote this book about how public health pandemics and Climate Change cannot be ignored. Economic recessions of very large magnitude can’t be ignored either. But the one I want to focus on in this article is the so-called Energy Transition. Environmentalist are talking about an energy transition to a new Green Energy world, net-neutral-carbon-zero world to mitigate against the impacts of Climate Change and predict that we don’t have much time to get there. April 4, 2022.

The U.S. Can Help Heat Europe 3/10/2022

The U.S. Can Help Heat Europe

Payne Institute Program Manager Brad Handler and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to calls for the U.S. to make a war time expansion of its hydrocarbon production. The idea is to help ease prices and to support energy security and energy diversification for Europe. Certainly, some of these calls belie a narrow commercial self-interest, while others are directed at supporting our allies. Importantly, and despite some of the rhetoric, the U.S. government isn’t standing in the way of industry growth. Still, the government can and should help ease the industry’s path to higher LNG production to help support European energy—and in particular, heating. March 10, 2022.

Lebanon Energy Crisis: Time to Reform 3/7/2022

Lebanon Energy Crisis: Time to Reform

Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir, Communications Specialist Brooke Bowser, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the attention of the world’s energy sector is clearly focused on Russia and Ukraine, but the ongoing crisis in Lebanon warrants our collective attention. The situation is horrifying. Lebanon is being battered by a confluence of crises engulfing national security, politics and government, integrity in public office, the economy and banking sector, social unrest, energy instability and environmental degradation. Each is feeding off the others to create a storm rooted in Lebanon’s failed economic, social, environmental policies. March 7, 2022.

Oil Industry Exits Point to Medium Term Supply Challenges and Incremental Renewable Investment 3/3/2022

Oil Industry Exits Point to Medium Term Supply Challenges and Incremental Renewable Investment

Payne Institute Program Manager, Sustainable Finance Lab, and Researcher Brad Handler looks at the energy majors’ exit from Russian relationships seems likely to put pressure on peers and the major Western service companies to follow suit. Such a broad exit points to eventual, and enduring declines in Russian oil production as well as lower Russian gas exports. Higher resulting oil and gas prices should further incentivize clean energy investments in the OECD and beyond. March 3, 2022.

Satellite Data Provides Insights about the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 3/2/2022

Satellite Data Provides Insights about the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The Payne Institute’s Earth Observation Group (EOG) can capture a unique view of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine using satellite data provided by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard a Joint Polar Satellite System co-operated by NOAA and NASA. The EOG’s VIIRS Nighttime Lights (VNL) product can display nighttime lights while the group’s VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) product can detect thermal anomalies on the Earth’s surface. March 2, 2022.

Colorado’s Adherence to Its Energy Goals: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Recently Enacted Energy Policies 2/23/22

Colorado’s Adherence to Its Energy Goals: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Recently Enacted Energy Policies

Payne Institute student Jacob Cordell writes about how a combined partnership between government, industry and citizens is needed to adequately address the inequities in current energy infrastructure while continuing to increase employment and transition to a lower emissions future. February 23, 2022.