SUPPORTING ELECTRIFICATION POLICY IN FRAGILE STATES: A CONFLICT-ADJUSTED GEOSPACIAL LEAST COST APPROACH FOR AFGHANISTAN
Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. We also identify inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030. January 21, 2020.