Payne Commentary Series - Payne Institute for Public Policy

Interest Group Power and the Passage of Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA): A Multiple Streams Approach 8/4/2022

Interest Group Power and the Passage of Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA): A Multiple Streams Approach

Payne Institute Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how after about 20 years of slow and staggered progress, Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) was ratified into law in 2021 and became the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). This paper examines the dynamic political context in which the bill finally came into being through the lens of the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF). It identifies the key interest groups in the context of the bill’s passage and describes the changes in the preference enforcement power of these groups that opened the way for the passage of the bill. Finally, it sheds light on the PIA’s survival prospects after the 2023 presidential elections based on the backgrounds of the top candidates and their likely policy inclinations. August 4, 2022.

A View from the Ground Along the Proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) Route 7/15/2022

A View from the Ground Along the Proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) Route

Payne Institute ESG Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how the proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) has been conceived to transport gas from the Niger delta in Nigeria, across Niger and Algeria to supply Europe as it reduces its dependence on Russian gas while transitioning to lower carbon energy. Technical risks to the pipeline’s success can also be substantially mitigated through engineering studies before the final investment decision is made. A case can be made that beyond these latter risk categories, that there would be residual risks to the TSGP’s success that are non-market and non-technical in nature. July 15, 2022.

Clearing the Non-Technical Hurdles for CCS 7/15/2022

Clearing the Non-Technical Hurdles for CCS

Payne Institute Communications Associate Brooke Bowser, Sustainable Finance Lab Program Manager Brad Handler, CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the oil and gas industry began injecting carbon dioxide into the ground in the 1970s as a technique to produce more oil (now called enhanced oil recovery), but today there is a renewed interest in CO2 injection for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects — this time as a way to address climate change. Despite CCS technology itself being decades-old, persistent regulatory and liability questions paired with limited economic viability threaten development, even as the industry appears to be gathering momentum for large-scale growth. July 15, 2022.

Less is More: The Impact of Auto Lender Risk on Household Auto Purchases

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange, Payne Institute Researcher Caitlin McKennie, and Mirko Moro write about how credit risk can be an impediment to new auto purchases, especially for electric vehicles. This paper looks at the elimination of auto loan cramdowns for Chapter 13 bankruptcy proceedings, where the loan value is made equal to the auto value, on three outcomes: auto value, likelihood of new auto, and loan-to-value ratio of new autos. Using a difference-in-difference approach based on a state’s historical use of Chapter 13 bankruptcy, we show that household’s secure better loan-to-value ratios and acquire higher valued autos due to lower credit risk following the reform. July 5, 2022.

Can African countries benefit from the coming boom in battery minerals demand? 6/27/2022

Can African countries benefit from the coming boom in battery minerals demand?

Payne Institute Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how many African nations are falling further behind developed countries in providing economic opportunities for their citizens despite having substantial mineral and energy endowments. Accepting the view that increasing commodity exports can help close the gap, this commentary examines the availability of cobalt, lithium, and nickel resources, reserves and production in African countries and their potential for meeting the future demand for electric vehicle batteries. June 27, 2022.

The Dimming of Lights in Afghanistan 2022 versus 2021 6/24/2022

The Dimming of Lights in Afghanistan 2022 versus 2021

Payne Institute’s Earth Observation Group Senior Research Associate Christopher Elvidge and Research Associates Tilottama Ghosh and Mikhail Zhizhin write a Commentary “The Dimming Lights in Afghanistan 2022 versus 2021”. Included is a color composite image to identify Afghanistan cities or towns where the lighting has dimmed during the first part of 2022 relative to a year ago using VIIRS day / night band cloud-free average radiances. June 24, 2022.

Challenges in Accurately Tracking Copper Trade Flows 6/9/2022

Challenges in Accurately Tracking Copper Trade Flows

Payne Institute Mineral Supply Chain Researcher Zach Krause writes about how copper is among the most heavily traded commodities world-wide. The trade volume of copper in combination with the environmental impact of the mining industry has drawn increased attention to the processing and trade of copper and other primary metals. Moreover, copper is a metal that is essential to the energy transition as a component of renewable technologies. June 9, 2022.

Synergies Between Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration and Geothermal Power in Sedimentary Basins 6/7/2022

Synergies Between Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration and Geothermal Power in Sedimentary Basins

Payne Institute CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield and Eric Stautberg write about how to achieve a rapid and effective energy transition, society will need to widely deploy both existing and emerging technologies and tools. Mitigating the emissions of greenhouse gases while maintaining the world’s growing demands for energy will require these to deployed at great pace and scale. Natural synergies exist between two such technologies: carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS) projects and geothermal power generation from hot sedimentary aquifers. The overlapping technical and operational components of these projects underline an opportunity for cost savings and accelerated deployment. June 7, 2022.

Water Security Issues for Lithium Mining in Chile 5/17/2022

Water Security Issues for Lithium Mining in Chile

Payne Institute Communications Associate Eleanor Igwe writes about how due to lithium’s central role in electric vehicle batteries, its demand is predicted to continue a steep rise and likely reach the level of two to four million metric tons by 2030. In addition to the stresses this will put on mining production and the environment – issues of water security are likely to become a key challenge. May 17, 2022.

Corporate ESG Commitments are Gaining Popularity. Can They be Trusted?

Payne Institute Communications Associate Elsa Barron, Payne Institute Program Manager Jordy Lee, and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about the growing concerns about the long-term sustainability of many industries have led to big changes in approaches to corporate strategies and management. Pressure from financiers is adding to the momentum. Concerns about climate related financial risks and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data, have helped create demand from bankers for companies to show that they are actively working towards global climate goals. May 9, 2022.

How Artificial Intelligence Can Accelerate Geothermal Investment 4/29/2022

How Artificial Intelligence Can Accelerate Geothermal Investment

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Sebnem Düzgün, Payne Institute Communications Associate Elsa Barron, and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about how in the midst of the global energy transition, geothermal operations promise to provide stable, renewable energy, so why aren’t more investors taking the bait? One of the major roadblocks for geothermal investment is the high level of uncertainty that accompanies the subsurface resource. April 29, 2022.

A Critical Minerals Policy Option for the U.S. 4/19/2022

A Critical Minerals Policy Option for the U.S.

Payne Institute Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how the U.S.’s current policies may be insufficient to meet its strategic goal of supply chain resilience and unfettered access to critical minerals needed for its economic growth and military deterrence purposes. He proposes an additional policy approach to further enrich ongoing discussions about this very important and strategic sector. April 19, 2022.

Fireside Chats with Gaia 4/4/2022

Fireside Chats with Gaia

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow James Crompton wrote this book about how public health pandemics and Climate Change cannot be ignored. Economic recessions of very large magnitude can’t be ignored either. But the one I want to focus on in this article is the so-called Energy Transition. Environmentalist are talking about an energy transition to a new Green Energy world, net-neutral-carbon-zero world to mitigate against the impacts of Climate Change and predict that we don’t have much time to get there. April 4, 2022.

The U.S. Can Help Heat Europe 3/10/2022

The U.S. Can Help Heat Europe

Payne Institute Program Manager Brad Handler and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to calls for the U.S. to make a war time expansion of its hydrocarbon production. The idea is to help ease prices and to support energy security and energy diversification for Europe. Certainly, some of these calls belie a narrow commercial self-interest, while others are directed at supporting our allies. Importantly, and despite some of the rhetoric, the U.S. government isn’t standing in the way of industry growth. Still, the government can and should help ease the industry’s path to higher LNG production to help support European energy—and in particular, heating. March 10, 2022.

Lebanon Energy Crisis: Time to Reform 3/7/2022

Lebanon Energy Crisis: Time to Reform

Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir, Communications Specialist Brooke Bowser, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the attention of the world’s energy sector is clearly focused on Russia and Ukraine, but the ongoing crisis in Lebanon warrants our collective attention. The situation is horrifying. Lebanon is being battered by a confluence of crises engulfing national security, politics and government, integrity in public office, the economy and banking sector, social unrest, energy instability and environmental degradation. Each is feeding off the others to create a storm rooted in Lebanon’s failed economic, social, environmental policies. March 7, 2022.

Oil Industry Exits Point to Medium Term Supply Challenges and Incremental Renewable Investment 3/3/2022

Oil Industry Exits Point to Medium Term Supply Challenges and Incremental Renewable Investment

Payne Institute Program Manager, Sustainable Finance Lab, and Researcher Brad Handler looks at the energy majors’ exit from Russian relationships seems likely to put pressure on peers and the major Western service companies to follow suit. Such a broad exit points to eventual, and enduring declines in Russian oil production as well as lower Russian gas exports. Higher resulting oil and gas prices should further incentivize clean energy investments in the OECD and beyond. March 3, 2022.

Satellite Data Provides Insights about the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 3/2/2022

Satellite Data Provides Insights about the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The Payne Institute’s Earth Observation Group (EOG) can capture a unique view of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine using satellite data provided by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard a Joint Polar Satellite System co-operated by NOAA and NASA. The EOG’s VIIRS Nighttime Lights (VNL) product can display nighttime lights while the group’s VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) product can detect thermal anomalies on the Earth’s surface. March 2, 2022.

Resource Conflict in the Energy Transition 2/21/2022

Resource Conflict in the Energy Transition

Payne Institute Communications Associate Elsa Barron, Deputy Director Gregory Clough, Alicia Polo y La Borda Cavero, Director Morgan Bazilian, Henry Gustavo Polanco Cornejo, and Eliseo Zeballos Zeballos write about how energy transitions occurring globally—towards low-carbon technologies, increased electrification, and electric vehicles and battery storage capacity—will also produce significant challenges in resource-rich areas. The demand for a varied set of mineral resources and metals that are required for renewable energy technologies such as solar panels and batteries is set to grow at an unprecedented scale. Many of the countries with the largest potentials for these minerals are in emerging and developing economies that face capacity and governance challenges. February 21, 2022.
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Does Oil Production Affect Government Effectiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa? 1/31/2022

Payne Institute Commentary – Does Oil Production Affect Government Effectiveness in SSA

Payne Institute Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how the directional impact of oil revenues on the performance of governments in sub–Saharan African countries. As a proxy for governance/government performance, this study uses scores from publicly available third-party studies for the following measures, Doing Business, Elite Factionalization, State Legitimacy, Public Services, Inequality, Civil Liberties, Political Rights and Group Grievance. January 31, 2022.

Critical Minerals and the Legacy Mine Environment: A Proposed Data Collection Program to Help Address the U.S. Critical Minerals Gap 12/9/2021

Critical Minerals and the Legacy Mine Environment: A Proposed Data Collection Program to Help Address the U.S. Critical Minerals Gap

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Elizabeth Holley, Robin Bullock, Priscilla Nelson, Erik Spiller, and Fellow Sara Hastings-Simon write about how the United States is in the midst of a robust national debate regarding supply chains for the critical minerals needed to facilitate, support and drive the clean energy economy, and to anchor national security. The issue is well-categorized in the recent White House 100-Day Task Force Report under EO 14017. As with most energy and resource topics, opinions vary widely – buy from trusted allies and foreign sources, source via recycling, accelerate U.S. mineral exploration, process from unconventional feedstocks (coal and coal ash), and search for more readily available alternatives. Ultimately, we will likely need all of these options, operating simultaneously, to provide the minerals and materials necessary to ensure national and economic security, generate jobs, and stimulate economic growth. We propose a rapid assessment of an additional, often overlooked resource category: mining waste from approximately 500,000 legacy and abandoned sites scattered throughout the country. December 9, 2021.

Africa ‘Climate Infrastructure Trap’ in Energy and Transport Sectors 12/7/2021

Africa ‘Climate Infrastructure Trap’ in Energy and Transport Sectors

Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir, Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez, and Nitin Jain write about how Africa is particularly vulnerable to these extreme impacts of climate change. It is crucial that African climate adaptation finances increase substantially and investments in infrastructure are sustainable and resilient. This requires a fundamental systemic transformation. December 7, 2021.

Ending Gas Flaring and Powering a Sustainable Economy of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq 11/24/2021

Ending Gas Flaring and Powering a Sustainable Economy of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Payne Institute Fellow Peri-Khan Aqrawi-Whitcomb writes about how the UN Environment Programme has ranked Iraq (including the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)), as the fifth most vulnerable country in the world to the effects of climate change, such as water scarcity, desertification and extreme weather variability such as droughts, flooding, and storms. Some regions of Iraq are even expected to become uninhabitable in the coming decades. Years of conflict, war, poor governance, corruption and industrial pollution, have in addition led to the country’s massive environmental decline. November 24, 2021.

Big Oil and the Energy Transition 11/16/2021

Big Oil and the Energy Transition

Payne Institute Communications Associate Brooke Bowser, Fellow Dolf Gielen, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how climate pledges are on the rise as businesses and governments seek to boost their public images and support the environment. Oil and gas, which make up nearly 55% of global energy consumption, is under particular pressure to reduce emissions. November 16, 2021.

A Geothermal Transition 11/15/2021

A Geothermal Transition

Payne Institute Communications Associate Elsa Barron and Director Morgan D. Bazilian write about how the global energy sector is changing rapidly, and in myriad ways. Geothermal energy is poised to play an important role going forward. While the technology has been in place for many decades, new innovations are opening up possibilities for the expansion of geothermal energy production into areas beyond traditional geothermal hotspots (e.g., volcanoes). Geothermal also has an important benefit among renewable energy technologies: it has considerable overlap of required data and skill sets with the oil and gas industry¬—this has big implications for ensuring so called just transitions. November 15, 2021.

Improving Satellite Monitoring of Methane Emissions 11/9/2021

Improving Satellite Monitoring of Methane Emissions – Data science is fundamental to better emissions tracking

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Dorit Hammerling, Researcher William Daniels, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Communications Associate Brooke Bowser write about how reducing methane emissions is a focus of addressing climate change. To do so effectively requires a robust monitoring and reporting system. Using data science, researchers at the Payne Institute are able to reduce the limitations of existing satellite data by providing localized estimations of methane fields to help fill the gaps of current monitoring. November 9, 2021.