Payne Commentary Series

Crimea Blackout Seen from VIIRS Nighttime Lights

Crimea Blackout Seen from VIIRS Nighttime Lights

Payne Institute Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the VIIRS DNB detected a clear nighttime-light loss in southwestern Crimea, strongest on the night of July 5–6 UTC, centered on the Sevastopol–Simferopol focus area.  July 9, 2026.

How Institutional Failure Turned Sulfur into a Global Crisis 7/1/2026

How Institutional Failure Turned Sulfur into a Global Crisis

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the United States and its allies have policies to help ensure the delivery and security of food, munitions, oil, LNG, and semiconductors. Yet no comparable strategy exists for the chemical that connects and underpins them all. Sulfur and its derivative, sulfuric acid.  July 1, 2026.

A Strategic Framework for U.S. Engagement in Africa’s Critical Minerals 6/25/2026

A Strategic Framework for U.S. Engagement in Africa’s Critical Minerals

Payne Institute Critical Minerals Program Manager Clarkson Kamurai, Richard Gabah, and Payne Institute Critical Minerals Research Associate Isabel Guajardo write about how advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence (AI), and many other technologies are fundamentally dependent on mineral inputs. Africa is emerging as an important partner given its vast critical mineral endowment and increasing openness to foreign investment.  June 25, 2026.

Orphan Well Carbon Crediting Methodologies: A Review of Quantification Practices and Proposal to Incorporate Leak Forecasting 6/25/2026

Orphan Well Carbon Crediting Methodologies: A Review of Quantification Practices and Proposal to Incorporate Leak Forecasting

Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Director Brad Handler writes about how hastening the plugging of orphan wells in the U.S., for climate, environmental and human health purposes, is encouraging the pursuit of private sources of financing through the voluntary carbon market (VCM).  The largest remaining challenge to the integrity of orphan well crediting methodologies is timing, or when the plugged well would likely have emitted methane.  June 25, 2026.

The Uranium Fuel Cycle under a U.S. Nuclear Renaissance: An Introduction to the Payne Institute’s Two-Part Primer 6/17/2026

The Uranium Fuel Cycle under a U.S. Nuclear Renaissance: An Introduction to the Payne Institute’s Two-Part Primer

The Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab is pleased to publish the first of a two-part primer on the nuclear fuel cycle. Part I addresses the front end — from mining through to fuel fabrication. We cover existing infrastructure capacity and the market mechanics and buying behavior for each step along the chain, as well as how U.S. policy is spurring expansion in fuel cycle capacity.  June 17, 2026.

Africa’s Solar Inflection Point 5/29/2026

Africa’s Solar Inflection Point

Macdonald Amoah and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about how between June 2023 and June 2025, sub-Saharan Africa’s solar panel imports from China nearly tripled outside South Africa, rising from 3,734 MW to 11,248 MW. Twenty countries set individual import records.  They look at the trade data as its starting point and works outward. What is driving the import surge? Which countries are absorbing the volume, and why? May 29, 2026.

The Tokenization of Environmental Attributes of Natural Gas 5/8/2026

The Tokenization of Environmental Attributes of Natural Gas

Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler addressed attendees at the Enverus’ EVOLVE conference in Houston, TX on creating digital tokens based on the environmental attributes of low fugitive methane-emissions natural gas. The talk reviews the creation of such tokens, their use in facilitating transacting in low emissions gas, and efforts to turn these tokens into a tradable asset.  May 8, 2026.

End of the Uncontested Sea: The Strait of Hormuz is a Trap 4/20/2026

End of the Uncontested Sea: The Strait of Hormuz is a Trap

Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek and Director Morgan Bazilian write about the Strait of Hormuz does not need to be shutdown to wreak havoc on the global economy. It has already become unreliable – and those repercussions will be longed live.  April 20, 2026.

How Europe’s Carbon Tax is Reshaping Mineral Markets 4/15/26

How Europe’s Carbon Tax is Reshaping Mineral Markets

Payne Institute Student Researcher Sravan Lavudya and Geothermal and Low Carbon Technologies Program Manager Anna Littlefield write how across the global minerals sector, from mines in Australia to refineries in Brazil and smelters in South Africa, a new force is reshaping the landscape.  It is not being driven by markets or technology but by policy coming out of Brussels. April 15, 2026.

Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining developing in Chile: Impact and Structural Barriers to Formalization 4/10/2026

Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining developing in Chile: Impact and Structural Barriers to Formalization

Payne Institute Research Associate Isabel Guajardo, Critical Minerals Program Manager Clarkson Kamurai, Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler and Faculty Fellow Ian Lange write about how artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) plays a meaningful, though often understated, role in Chile’s mining sector and regional economies.  April 10, 2026.

Ras Laffan LNG Thermal Profiles Suggest an Operational Shift at Multiple Trains 4/10/2026

Ras Laffan LNG Thermal Profiles Suggest an Operational Shift at Multiple Trains

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how a new VIIRS Nightfire analysis indicates that several sources in the Ras Laffan LNG cluster may contain both compressor and flare emissions within a single satellite pixel, with March 2026 observations pointing to a possible change in operating regime.  April 10, 2026.

Tracking and Transacting Clean Natural Gas: Operationalizing Environmental Attribute Tokens 4/7/2026

Tracking and Transacting Clean Natural Gas: Operationalizing Environmental Attribute Tokens

Payne Institute Student Researcher Liam O’Byrne and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how there is an emerging need for companies to track and disclose the carbon intensity of the natural gas and other fossil fuel-based products they buy. For producers of these fuels, documenting carbon intensity, at least at scale, requires systems that standardize, which the financial services industry can leverage to create new markets.  April 7, 2026.

Kharg Island Refinery VIIRS Nightfire Temporal Profiles 4/1/2026

Kharg Island Refinery VIIRS Nightfire Temporal Profiles

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Director Christopher Elvidge writes about how the behaviour of the flares at three refineries on Kharg Island. Two out of three were affect by the war which started on February 28. One site began to have gaps in detections, with only five in the past month. Another site exhibits a large increase in the source area of the flares. April 1, 2026.

Tin Demand Is Booming; Opportunities and Risks for Small Communities in Indonesia 3/25/2026

Tin Demand Is Booming; Opportunities and Risks for Small Communities in Indonesia

Payne Institute Student Researchers Andrew Bauman and Jason Gustely, Faculty Fellow Ian Lange, and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM) in Indonesia, who provide as much as 12% of global supply, have a significant opportunity to benefit from the strong tin demand. March 25, 2026.

Recent War-Time Changes in Upstream Gas Flaring Across the Middle East Observed by VIIRS Nightfire 3/24/2026

Recent War-Time Changes in Upstream Gas Flaring Across the Middle East Observed by VIIRS Nightfire

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how a change detector for the most recent steps in flaring regime since 1 January 2025 was applied to 2,225 upstream flares identified by VIIRS Nightfire across the Middle East.  March 24, 2026.  

Every Time the World Asks “Who Are the Kurds?” There Is a Crisis in the Middle East 3/16/2026

Every Time the World Asks “Who Are the Kurds?” There Is a Crisis in the Middle East

Payne Institute Fellow Peri-Khan Aqrawi-Whitcomb writes about how whenever a “Who Are the Kurds?” explainer appears in your feed, and they’re landing right now, you already know two things: there is war somewhere in the Middle East, and someone is hoping the Kurds will help win or contain it.  Spread across Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, they are widely regarded as the largest stateless nation in the world. March 16, 2026.

Nuclear and SMR Non‑Fuel Critical Minerals Supply Chain: An Emerging Fourth Value Chain 3/11/2026

Nuclear and SMR Non‑Fuel Critical Minerals Supply Chain: An Emerging Fourth Value Chain

Kruthika A. Bala and Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow R.J. Johnston write about how as Canada expands its nuclear ambitions through small modular reactors (SMRs) and legacy technologies such as CANDU and AP-1000 reactor designs, a new strategic value chain for critical minerals demand is emerging. The nuclear sector is emerging as a fourth value chain for critical minerals, alongside clean energy, defence, and artificial intelligence/semiconductors.  March 11, 2026.

Indonesia Nickel Stakeholder Feedback Sheds Additional Light on Challenges for ASM 3/4/2026

Indonesia Nickel Stakeholder Feedback Sheds Additional Light on Challenges for ASM

Matt Lee, Payne Institute Critical Minerals Program Manager Clarkson Kamurai, and Sustainable Finance Lab Director Brad Handler write about how ASM presents both opportunities and risks in Indonesia. Looking at ASM companies’ limited capability and pointed to how even informal ASM is integrated into larger local actors’ planning.  March 4, 2026.

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security? 2/20/2026

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security?

Payne Institute Fellow Andrei Covatariu and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how energy has, once again, been discussed less as a commodity and more as a component of industrial and geopolitical power. In this environment, the meaning of energy security extends beyond fuel diversification to encompass broader questions of economic resilience and systemic stability.  February 20, 2026.

Strategic Intervention to Rebuild Semiconductor Minerals Capacity in the West 2/12/2026

Strategic Intervention to Rebuild Semiconductor Minerals Capacity in the West

Payne Institute Student Researcher Shane Sethi, Jonah Allen, and Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange write about how semiconductors are the foundational components of modern technology; integrated circuits (ICs), which are complex layers of interconnected semiconductors, now dominate global semiconductor trade and underpin most high-value electronics.  Recent efforts to address supply chain vulnerabilities and rebuild domestic manufacturing depend on a stable and secure supply of critical components.  February 12, 2026.

Waste Not: Reimagining Mine Liabilities as Energy Assets 1/14/2026

Waste Not: Reimagining Mine Liabilities as Energy Assets

Payne Institute Student Researcher Sravan Lavudya and Geothermal and Low Carbon Technologies Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how as the US looks to minimize its reliance on foreign critical minerals, we must contend with the implications of increased domestic extraction and processing, neither of which are low impact. They explore how operators are reimagining the pieces of the process, turning mine tailings into assets and repurposing existing mine infrastructure.  January 14, 2026.

Powered by Place 1/8/2026

Powered by Place

Payne Institute Native American Mineral and Energy Sovereignty (NAMES) Director Richard Luarkie, Shane Seibel, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how Native Nations stand at the threshold of a rare and defining opportunity because the global energy landscape is reorganizing the economy, and the lands Indigenous peoples have collectively owned for thousands of years now sit at the center of what the world needs.  January 8, 2025.  

 

The Payne Institute experts are regional, national, and international leaders in applied research in natural resources, energy, and the environment. Our team is involved in a wide variety of research projects in these fields, and are committed to sharing these results with academic and professional audiences.

 

DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed are those of the author alone and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, viewpoints, or official policies of the Payne Institute or Colorado School of Mines.