Payne Commentary Series - Payne Institute for Public Policy

Argentina’s Copper Opportunity 11/13/2025

Argentina’s Copper Opportunity

Payne Institute Critical Minerals Research Associate Isabel Guajardo writes about how Argentina stands at a pivotal juncture in its mining trajectory. With 76 copper projects officially recognized by the government across eight of the country’s 24 provinces, the nation is gradually emerging as a new player in the global copper market. November 13, 2025.

From Criticality to Bankability: A Structural Taxonomy for Strategic Minerals 11/12/2025

From Criticality to Bankability: A Structural Taxonomy for Strategic Minerals

Kruthika A. Bala and Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Robert J. Johnston introduce the Critical Metals, Minerals, and Materials (CM3) taxonomy, a structural–financial model for assessing mineral bankability. Unlike conventional criticality frameworks that focus on geological scarcity or import dependence, CM3 identifies the economic and institutional conditions that determine whether projects can attract private investment. November 12, 2025.

Planning, Policies, and Governance: The Importance of Strategy When it Comes to Climate Finance for Small Island Developing States 10/13/2025

Planning, Policies, and Governance: The Importance of Strategy When it Comes to Climate Finance for Small Island Developing States

Daniel Flores, Julia Eichhorn, Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir, and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez write about how ramping up climate finance flows for adaptation is critical to addressing the irreversible impacts of climate change, but this alone will not be enough to protect (SIDS). This commentary presents an overview of the status of strategic adaptation document submissions across SIDS and the overall level of environments for adaptation investments. October 13, 2025.

Small Costs for Large Gains: Climate Resilience in Small Island Developing States 10/13/2025

Small Costs for Large Gains: Climate Resilience in Small Island Developing States

Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez write about how Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are increasingly affected by the growing impacts of climate hazards, including tropical cyclones, storm surges, increases in temperature, heatwaves, droughts, coastal and riverine flooding, changing precipitation patterns, and sea level rise among others. Until now, international adaptation and mitigation efforts have paid insufficient attention to these vulnerable island nations. October 13, 2025.

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country 10/1/2025

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country

Payne Institute NAMES Research Associate Alex Brunson, Student Researcher Elise Previdi, NAMES Director Richard Luarkie, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the U.S. is projected to experience a significant increase in demand for power capacity to meet the needs of its rapidly expanding network of data centers. These require unprecedented levels of energy and computational power, which can be supported by forming strategic partnerships with Native Nations and placing some of this high-tech infrastructure on Native American lands. October 1, 2025.

The Fastest Path to Strategic Mineral Security 8/21/2025

The Fastest Path to Strategic Mineral Security

Payne Institute Senior Advisor Rick Tallman writes about how the United States is facing a critical minerals emergency. While other nations also produce critical minerals, the U.S. currently lacks the domestic processing capacity to convert raw materials into usable products. Without modern infrastructure, even domestic or ally-sourced materials cannot reliably flow into U.S. markets. August 21, 2025.

Best Methods for Abandoning an Idle Oil Well and the Longevity of Wellbore Cement 8/21/2025

Best Methods for Abandoning an Idle Oil Well and the Longevity of Wellbore Cement

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Jim Crompton, Student Researcher Vandan Bhalala, and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how plugging and abandoning an idle oil well is a critical process in oil and gas operations during the later stages of the life of a wellbore, environmental, safety and economic perspectives. They look at the best methods for abandoning an idle oil well, as well as the durability and longevity of cement barrier used in wellbores against leakage of methane gas. August 21, 2025.

Keeping Up with Carbon: Key Changes for 45Q Tax Credits Under “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and Possible Impacts 8/18/2025

Keeping Up with Carbon: Key Changes for 45Q Tax Credits Under “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and Possible Impacts

Payne Institute Student Researcher Emma Jones Fredrickson and Payne Institute Geothermal and CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) was signed into law on July 4th of this year, with some regulations aimed at incentivizing carbon capture and storage. They we aim to provide a clear description of its final form and implications for stakeholders. August 18, 2025.

Salty Solutions: Tapping Geothermal Brines for Rare Earth Elements 8/5/2025

Salty Solutions: Tapping Geothermal Brines for Rare Earth Elements

Payne Institute Student Researcher Emma Jones Fredrickson and Payne Institute Low Carbon Energy Technologies Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how as ever changing policies strain trade relationships between the U.S. and China, rare earth elements (REEs) provide China with leverage in negotiations, adding renewed urgency to seek alternative, domestic sources of these high-value materials. REE mining is accompanied by environmental contamination risks and potential impacts to human health, necessitating new solutions for sustainable mining practices. August 5, 2025.

MP Materials Corporation-Department of Defense Partnership 7/30/25

MP Materials Corporation-Department of Defense Partnership

Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Director Brad Handler along with PhD candidate Sangita Gayatri Kannan and Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange write about how earlier this month, MP Materials Corp. (MP), the U.S.’s only producing rare-earth mining company, announced a partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). July 30, 2025.

Bridging the Energy Access Divide: A Policy Gap Analysis of 12 African National Energy Compacts Under Mission 300 7/9/2025

Bridging the Energy Access Divide: A Policy Gap Analysis of 12 African National Energy Compacts Under Mission 300

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah writes about how Africa stands at a pivotal juncture in its energy trajectory, where bold aspirations for universal electrification by 2030 confront entrenched structural and institutional barriers. In response to this pressing challenge, twelve African governments have aligned themselves with the World Bank’s Mission 300 Energy Compacts, committing to universal access through a suite of reform-oriented and infrastructure-driven strategies. July 9, 2025.

Tokenizing the Environmental Attributes of Liquefied Natural Gas 7/9/2025

Tokenizing the Environmental Attributes of Liquefied Natural Gas

Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Director Brad Handler and student researcher Mark McCurdy write about how efforts to combat emissions of global warming/greenhouse gases are spawning the development of systems to track, record and share the carbon footprint and other environmental attributes of various operations. Methane emissions from the natural gas industry. July 9, 2025.

The Importance of Military Steel Production in Large-Scale Conflicts 7/7/2025

The Importance of Military Steel Production in Large-Scale Conflicts

Gregory Wischer and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about the importance a consistent steel supply chain for US national defense. A hard, strong alloy of iron, carbon, and other elements, it is used in platforms like attack submarines, long-range bombers, mobile missile launchers, as well as munitions like torpedoes, standoff missiles, and long-range missiles and rockets. July 7, 2025.

VIIRS Nightfire Version 4.0 Now Operational Across Suomi NPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21 satellites 7/2/2025

VIIRS Nightfire Version 4.0 Now Operational Across Suomi NPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21 satellites

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin, Earth Observation Director Christopher Elvidge, and Morgan Bazilian write about the new version of VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) 4.0 and how it significant improvements in 5 areas. As of July 1, 2025, the new version of the VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) algorithm Version 4.0 is available for all three VIIRS satellites: Suomi NPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21. This release marks a significant advance in nighttime thermal anomaly detection and characterization, offering researchers and practitioners enhanced capabilities across a wide range of applications, from wildfire monitoring to industrial flaring assessment. July 2, 2025.

Infrared Anomaly Near Fordow: Detection and Analysis of a Pre-Bombing Event 6/24/25

Infrared Anomaly Near Fordow: Detection and Analysis of a Pre-Bombing Event

Payne Institute Research Fellow Mikhail Zhizhin and Director Morgan Bazilian write about the night of June 22, 2025, prior to the deep penetration bombing of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, an infrared anomaly was detected by VIIRS approximately 3 kilometers north of the facility. June 24, 2025.

Rapid Conflict Monitoring of Israeli Strikes on Iran in June, 2025 using VIIRS Nightfire Data

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin, Earth Observation Group Director Christopher Elvidge, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about the thermal anomalies detected by the VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) algorithm in relation to reported Israeli military strikes on Iranian territory beginning June 13, 2025. Leveraging VNF’s ability to identify high-temperature combustion sources such as industrial flares, wildfires, and crucially, explosions and fires in conflict zones, this analysis aims to provide an independent assessment of the recent events. June 18, 2025.

Payne Introduces a Critical Mineral Markets Primer 6/17/2025

Payne Introduces a Critical Mineral Markets Primer

Payne Institute Affiliated Partner Rebecca Jackson and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how as the urgency for the US and OECD to develop critical minerals supply chains grows, we believe that a fundamental underpinning for that effort will be understanding and expanding market mechanisms that convene buyers and sellers and support mineral price discovery. To that end, we introduce a Critical Minerals Markets Primer detailing the nature of critical minerals transactions and how such transactions may evolve given technology and market growth. June 17, 2025.

A Study of Terminal Decline Rates of Oil & Gas Wells 6/9/2025

A Study of Terminal Decline Rates of Oil & Gas Wells

Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler, Student Researchers Vandan Bhalala and Liam O’Byrne, and Faculty Fellow Jim Crompton write about how in the United States alone, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates that there may be nearly 4 million inadequately decommissioned oil and gas wells. They also collectively are a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, a driving force behind global warming. A climate mitigation business model is emerging in which a project developer undertakes to properly plug a leaking abandoned wellbore to stop its fugitive emissions. June 9, 2025.

From Black Gold to Green Growth: Kurdistan’s Energy Opportunity at a Crossroads

Payne Institute Fellow Peri-Khan Aqrawi-Whitcomb writes about the Kurdistan Region’s recent multibillion-dollar oil and gas deals with U.S. companies, framing them as a pivotal moment of economic and geopolitical significance. While these agreements open the door to long-term prosperity, their success depends not only on the Kurdistan Regional Government but also on its international partners. May 26, 2025.

Tracking a Chemical Explosion in Iran 4/28/2025

TRACKING A CHEMICAL EXPLOSION IN IRAN

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Mikhail Zhizhin, Christopher Elvidge, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how A massive explosion occurred on Saturday, April 26, 2025, at the Shahid Rajaee port, located near the southern city of Bandar Abbas, Iran. This port is Iran’s largest commercial harbor and a crucial trade hub on the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is well known as a key transit for global oil trade. April 28, 2025.

Analysis on ASM Role in Indonesian Nickel Production 4/24/2025

Analysis on ASM Role in Indonesian Nickel Production

Payne Institute Student Researcher Matt Lee, Critical Minerals Program Manager Clarkson Kamurai, and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how Indonesia now dominates the global supply of nickel, an essential raw material for lithium-ion batteries and stainless steel. April 24, 2025.

Satellite Data Shows Massive Fire Following Russian Arsenal Explosion 4/23/2025

Satellite Data Shows Massive Fire Following Russian Arsenal Explosion

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Mikhail Zhizhin, Christopher Elvidge, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how April 22, 2025, a significant explosion followed by a large fire appears to have occurred at the 51st Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate near Kirzhach, in Russia’s Vladimir Oblast, northeast of Moscow. April 23, 2025.

Eyes on the Arctic: Satellite Monitoring of the Arctic LNG 2 Terminal 4/10/2025

Eyes on the Arctic: Satellite Monitoring of the Arctic LNG 2 Terminal

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Mikhail Zhizhin, Christopher Elvidge, and Morgan Bazilian write about how the Arctic LNG 2 project operated by Novatek, Russia’s largest independent natural gas producer, represents a significant undertaking in the global energy sector. The terminal’s capacity is crucial for Russia’s strategic goal of significantly increasing its share in the global LNG market, targeting a substantial portion of the expanding demand, particularly in Asia. April 10, 2025.

Three Satellites Confirm Malaysia Pipeline Explosion: VNF Thermal Detections Corroborate Major Industrial Fire Near Kuala Lumpur 4/2/2025

Three Satellites Confirm Malaysia Pipeline Explosion: VNF Thermal Detections Corroborate Major Industrial Fire Near Kuala Lumpur

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin writes about how on April 1, 2025, a significant gas pipeline explosion occurred in Putra Heights, a suburb of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, resulting in a massive fireball that injured at least 145 individuals, including three children. Satellite-based thermal anomaly detection systems, such as the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Nightfire (VNF), are instrumental in identifying and monitoring such incidents. April 2, 2025.

The Future of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2/17/2025

The Future of Carbon Dioxide Removal

Ben Tourkin, Nomadic Venture Partners (NVP), writes about the role that removal of atmospheric carbon will play in a global net-zero roadmap. From high-level market dynamics to comparisons of specific technologies and investment pathways, this exploration reflects a broad yet practical approach to understanding the opportunities and hurdles in this field. February 17, 2025.