Payne Commentary Series - Payne Institute for Public Policy

End of the Uncontested Sea: The Strait of Hormuz is a Trap 4/20/2026

End of the Uncontested Sea: The Strait of Hormuz is a Trap

Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek and Director Morgan Bazilian write about the Strait of Hormuz does not need to be shutdown to wreak havoc on the global economy. It has already become unreliable – and those repercussions will be longed live. April 20, 2026.

How Europe’s Carbon Tax is Reshaping Mineral Markets 4/15/26

How Europe’s Carbon Tax is Reshaping Mineral Markets

Payne Institute Student Researcher Sravan Lavudya and Geothermal and Low Carbon Technologies Program Manager Anna Littlefield write how across the global minerals sector, from mines in Australia to refineries in Brazil and smelters in South Africa, a new force is reshaping the landscape. It is not being driven by markets or technology but by policy coming out of Brussels. April 15, 2026.

Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining developing in Chile: Impact and Structural Barriers to Formalization 4/10/2026

Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining developing in Chile: Impact and Structural Barriers to Formalization

Payne Institute Research Associate Isabel Guajardo, Critical Minerals Program Manager Clarkson Kamurai, Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler and Faculty Fellow Ian Lange write about how artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) plays a meaningful, though often understated, role in Chile’s mining sector and regional economies. April 10, 2026.

Ras Laffan LNG Thermal Profiles Suggest an Operational Shift at Multiple Trains 4/10/2026

Ras Laffan LNG Thermal Profiles Suggest an Operational Shift at Multiple Trains

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how a new VIIRS Nightfire analysis indicates that several sources in the Ras Laffan LNG cluster may contain both compressor and flare emissions within a single satellite pixel, with March 2026 observations pointing to a possible change in operating regime. April 10, 2026.

Tracking and Transacting Clean Natural Gas: Operationalizing Environmental Attribute Tokens 4/7/2026

Tracking and Transacting Clean Natural Gas: Operationalizing Environmental Attribute Tokens

Payne Institute Student Researcher Liam O’Byrne and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how there is an emerging need for companies to track and disclose the carbon intensity of the natural gas and other fossil fuel-based products they buy. For producers of these fuels, documenting carbon intensity, at least at scale, requires systems that standardize, which the financial services industry can leverage to create new markets. April 7, 2026.

Kharg Island Refinery VIIRS Nightfire Temporal Profiles 4/1/2026

Kharg Island Refinery VIIRS Nightfire Temporal Profiles

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Director Christopher Elvidge writes about how the behaviour of the flares at three refineries on Kharg Island. Two out of three were affect by the war which started on February 28. One site began to have gaps in detections, with only five in the past month. Another site exhibits a large increase in the source area of the flares. April 1, 2026.

Tin Demand Is Booming; Opportunities and Risks for Small Communities in Indonesia 3/25/2026

Tin Demand Is Booming; Opportunities and Risks for Small Communities in Indonesia

Payne Institute Student Researchers Andrew Bauman and Jason Gustely, Faculty Fellow Ian Lange, and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM) in Indonesia, who provide as much as 12% of global supply, have a significant opportunity to benefit from the strong tin demand. March 25, 2026.

Recent War-Time Changes in Upstream Gas Flaring Across the Middle East Observed by VIIRS Nightfire 3/24/2026

Recent War-Time Changes in Upstream Gas Flaring Across the Middle East Observed by VIIRS Nightfire

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how a change detector for the most recent steps in flaring regime since 1 January 2025 was applied to 2,225 upstream flares identified by VIIRS Nightfire across the Middle East. March 24, 2026.

Every Time the World Asks “Who Are the Kurds?” There Is a Crisis in the Middle East 3/16/2026

Every Time the World Asks “Who Are the Kurds?” There Is a Crisis in the Middle East

Payne Institute Fellow Peri-Khan Aqrawi-Whitcomb writes about how whenever a “Who Are the Kurds?” explainer appears in your feed, and they’re landing right now, you already know two things: there is war somewhere in the Middle East, and someone is hoping the Kurds will help win or contain it. Spread across Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, they are widely regarded as the largest stateless nation in the world. March 16, 2026.

Nuclear and SMR Non‑Fuel Critical Minerals Supply Chain: An Emerging Fourth Value Chain 3/11/2026

Nuclear and SMR Non‑Fuel Critical Minerals Supply Chain: An Emerging Fourth Value Chain

Kruthika A. Bala and Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow R.J. Johnston write about how as Canada expands its nuclear ambitions through small modular reactors (SMRs) and legacy technologies such as CANDU and AP-1000 reactor designs, a new strategic value chain for critical minerals demand is emerging. The nuclear sector is emerging as a fourth value chain for critical minerals, alongside clean energy, defence, and artificial intelligence/semiconductors. March 11, 2026.

Indonesia Nickel Stakeholder Feedback Sheds Additional Light on Challenges for ASM 3/4/2026

Indonesia Nickel Stakeholder Feedback Sheds Additional Light on Challenges for ASM

Matt Lee, Payne Institute Critical Minerals Program Manager Clarkson Kamurai, and Sustainable Finance Lab Director Brad Handler write about how ASM presents both opportunities and risks in Indonesia. Looking at ASM companies’ limited capability and pointed to how even informal ASM is integrated into larger local actors’ planning. March 4, 2026.

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security? 2/20/2026

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security?

Payne Institute Fellow Andrei Covatariu and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how energy has, once again, been discussed less as a commodity and more as a component of industrial and geopolitical power. In this environment, the meaning of energy security extends beyond fuel diversification to encompass broader questions of economic resilience and systemic stability. February 20, 2026.

Strategic Intervention to Rebuild Semiconductor Minerals Capacity in the West 2/12/2026

Strategic Intervention to Rebuild Semiconductor Minerals Capacity in the West

Payne Institute Student Researcher Shane Sethi, Jonah Allen, and Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange write about how semiconductors are the foundational components of modern technology; integrated circuits (ICs), which are complex layers of interconnected semiconductors, now dominate global semiconductor trade and underpin most high-value electronics. Recent efforts to address supply chain vulnerabilities and rebuild domestic manufacturing depend on a stable and secure supply of critical components. February 12, 2026.

Waste Not: Reimagining Mine Liabilities as Energy Assets 1/14/2026

Waste Not: Reimagining Mine Liabilities as Energy Assets

Payne Institute Student Researcher Sravan Lavudya and Geothermal and Low Carbon Technologies Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how as the US looks to minimize its reliance on foreign critical minerals, we must contend with the implications of increased domestic extraction and processing, neither of which are low impact. They explore how operators are reimagining the pieces of the process, turning mine tailings into assets and repurposing existing mine infrastructure. January 14, 2026.

Powered by Place 1/8/2026

Powered by Place

Payne Institute Native American Mineral and Energy Sovereignty (NAMES) Director Richard Luarkie, Shane Seibel, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how Native Nations stand at the threshold of a rare and defining opportunity because the global energy landscape is reorganizing the economy, and the lands Indigenous peoples have collectively owned for thousands of years now sit at the center of what the world needs. January 8, 2025.

Articulating Value in Tribal Mineral Development 1/7/2028

Articulating Value in Tribal Mineral Development

Payne Institute Native American Mining and Energy Sovereignty (NAMES) Research Associate Alex Brunson writes about how in Indian Country federal investment at historic levels and global demand for critical minerals accelerating, the question is no longer whether resource-based development in Indian Country can occur, but how it will be structured; extractively and short-term, or sovereign, research-driven, and value-added. January 7, 2026.

Argentina’s Copper Opportunity 11/13/2025

Argentina’s Copper Opportunity

Payne Institute Critical Minerals Research Associate Isabel Guajardo writes about how Argentina stands at a pivotal juncture in its mining trajectory. With 76 copper projects officially recognized by the government across eight of the country’s 24 provinces, the nation is gradually emerging as a new player in the global copper market. November 13, 2025.

From Criticality to Bankability: A Structural Taxonomy for Strategic Minerals 11/12/2025

From Criticality to Bankability: A Structural Taxonomy for Strategic Minerals

Kruthika A. Bala and Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Robert J. Johnston introduce the Critical Metals, Minerals, and Materials (CM3) taxonomy, a structural–financial model for assessing mineral bankability. Unlike conventional criticality frameworks that focus on geological scarcity or import dependence, CM3 identifies the economic and institutional conditions that determine whether projects can attract private investment. November 12, 2025.

Planning, Policies, and Governance: The Importance of Strategy When it Comes to Climate Finance for Small Island Developing States 10/13/2025

Planning, Policies, and Governance: The Importance of Strategy When it Comes to Climate Finance for Small Island Developing States

Daniel Flores, Julia Eichhorn, Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir, and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez write about how ramping up climate finance flows for adaptation is critical to addressing the irreversible impacts of climate change, but this alone will not be enough to protect (SIDS). This commentary presents an overview of the status of strategic adaptation document submissions across SIDS and the overall level of environments for adaptation investments. October 13, 2025.

Small Costs for Large Gains: Climate Resilience in Small Island Developing States 10/13/2025

Small Costs for Large Gains: Climate Resilience in Small Island Developing States

Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez write about how Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are increasingly affected by the growing impacts of climate hazards, including tropical cyclones, storm surges, increases in temperature, heatwaves, droughts, coastal and riverine flooding, changing precipitation patterns, and sea level rise among others. Until now, international adaptation and mitigation efforts have paid insufficient attention to these vulnerable island nations. October 13, 2025.

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country 10/1/2025

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country

Payne Institute NAMES Research Associate Alex Brunson, Student Researcher Elise Previdi, NAMES Director Richard Luarkie, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the U.S. is projected to experience a significant increase in demand for power capacity to meet the needs of its rapidly expanding network of data centers. These require unprecedented levels of energy and computational power, which can be supported by forming strategic partnerships with Native Nations and placing some of this high-tech infrastructure on Native American lands. October 1, 2025.

The Fastest Path to Strategic Mineral Security 8/21/2025

The Fastest Path to Strategic Mineral Security

Payne Institute Senior Advisor Rick Tallman writes about how the United States is facing a critical minerals emergency. While other nations also produce critical minerals, the U.S. currently lacks the domestic processing capacity to convert raw materials into usable products. Without modern infrastructure, even domestic or ally-sourced materials cannot reliably flow into U.S. markets. August 21, 2025.

Best Methods for Abandoning an Idle Oil Well and the Longevity of Wellbore Cement 8/21/2025

Best Methods for Abandoning an Idle Oil Well and the Longevity of Wellbore Cement

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Jim Crompton, Student Researcher Vandan Bhalala, and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how plugging and abandoning an idle oil well is a critical process in oil and gas operations during the later stages of the life of a wellbore, environmental, safety and economic perspectives. They look at the best methods for abandoning an idle oil well, as well as the durability and longevity of cement barrier used in wellbores against leakage of methane gas. August 21, 2025.

Keeping Up with Carbon: Key Changes for 45Q Tax Credits Under “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and Possible Impacts 8/18/2025

Keeping Up with Carbon: Key Changes for 45Q Tax Credits Under “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and Possible Impacts

Payne Institute Student Researcher Emma Jones Fredrickson and Payne Institute Geothermal and CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) was signed into law on July 4th of this year, with some regulations aimed at incentivizing carbon capture and storage. They we aim to provide a clear description of its final form and implications for stakeholders. August 18, 2025.

Salty Solutions: Tapping Geothermal Brines for Rare Earth Elements 8/5/2025

Salty Solutions: Tapping Geothermal Brines for Rare Earth Elements

Payne Institute Student Researcher Emma Jones Fredrickson and Payne Institute Low Carbon Energy Technologies Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how as ever changing policies strain trade relationships between the U.S. and China, rare earth elements (REEs) provide China with leverage in negotiations, adding renewed urgency to seek alternative, domestic sources of these high-value materials. REE mining is accompanied by environmental contamination risks and potential impacts to human health, necessitating new solutions for sustainable mining practices. August 5, 2025.