Eyes on the Arctic: Satellite Monitoring of the Arctic LNG 2 Terminal
Eyes on the Arctic: Satellite Monitoring of the Arctic LNG 2 Terminal
PAYNE INSTITUTE COMMENTARY SERIES: COMMENTARY
April 10, 2025
The Arctic LNG 2 project operated by Novatek, Russia’s largest independent natural gas producer, represents a significant undertaking in the global energy sector [1]. Situated on the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic region, this ambitious project aims to tap into vast natural gas reserves and establish Russia as a leading exporter of LNG. The terminal is designed to eventually consist of three liquefaction trains, with a total planned annual production capacity of 19.8 million metric tons of LNG. This capacity is crucial for Russia’s strategic goal of significantly increasing its share in the global LNG market, targeting a substantial portion of the expanding demand, particularly in Asia.
Initially, the project garnered international interest and participation, with stakeholders including France’s Total Energies, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), and a consortium of Japan’s Mitsui and JOGMEC. However, the imposition of increasingly stringent Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine [2] has led to the withdrawal of some of these international partners, significantly altering the project’s profile, and appearing to stall or stop its operations
Despite these challenges, recent media reports [3] indicate a resumption of operational activities, including the commissioning of the second production train. This progress, evidenced by a few mid- and high-resolution daytime satellite images detecting a visible gas flare, contrasts sharply with the ongoing difficulties in securing buyers for its LNG and the logistical complexities arising from sanctions targeting shipping and financial transactions [4].
The approximate coordinates for the Arctic LNG 2 terminal, where both Train 1 and Train 2 are located, are 70.997 degrees North and 73.841 degrees East. Recent satellite imagery from March and April 2025 shows the locations of Train 1 and Train 2 at the Arctic LNG 2 terminal in the Gydan Peninsula, Russia. One such image from March 2025 by Planet Labs/REUTERS/SCANPIX (Fig. 1) shows Train 1 (lower) and Train 2 (upper) [5]. Additionally, European Sentinel-2 satellite images [6] from early April 2025 (Fig. 2) captured flaring activity at both Train 1 and Train 2 and at the flare stack inland to the east from the trains.
Using nighttime visible and infrared channels
Gas flaring is a standard practice at LNG terminals for safety and operational purposes, and given the scale of Arctic LNG 2 and the observed flaring, it is no surprise that this activity would generate a thermal signature detectable at night by our VIIRS Nightfire and nighttime lights algorithms.
The fact that European Sentinel 2 satellite imagery has already visually detected gas flaring at the Arctic LNG 2 site during daytime indicates that the flaring is substantial enough to be observed from space. VIIRS Nightfire [7], with its specific sensitivity to the thermal emissions from gas flares through short-wave infrared bands, is therefore well-suited for detecting this activity, provided cloud-free nighttime observations are available. Major flaring events are also likely to result in a noticeable increase in the overall nighttime light intensity around the terminal.
When comparing the utility of VIIRS Nightfire and VIIRS nighttime lights data for monitoring gas flaring at the Arctic LNG 2 terminal, several factors come into play, including accuracy, sensitivity, the ability to distinguish flares from other light sources, and the frequency of updates. VIIRS Nightfire demonstrates higher accuracy in specifically identifying gas flares due to its utilization of short-wave infrared bands that are sensitive to the high temperatures characteristic of combustion. Nighttime lights data from the VIIRS day and night band (DNB), with its broader spectral range and much higher sensitivity to visible light [8], can detect even smaller flares, but may lead to false positives where increased light intensity could be due to various operational activities at the terminal rather than solely from gas flaring.
In terms of the frequency of updates, both VIIRS Nightfire and DNB nighttime light data are available from three satellites Suomi NPP, NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 on a daily basis with up to ten satellite overpasses per night, providing frequent opportunities for continuous monitoring of flares. However, the Arctic environment presents challenges for both data types due to persistent cloud cover and extended periods of sunlit nights in summer, which can limit the number of usable cloud-free observations [9].
Figure 1. Planet satellite image from March 30 showing flaring activity at Train 1 (lower) of the Arctic LNG 2. (Source: Planet)
Figure 2. Sentinel-2 satellite image from April 6 showing significant flaring activity at both Train 1 and 2 of the Arctic LNG 2. (Source: Sentinel 2)
Results
Gas flaring activity in the vicinity of the Arctic LNG 2 port was observed by three VIIRS satellites well in advance of the commissioning of the first production train. Utilizing a super-resolution algorithm [10], four distinct flaring sites were identified near the LNG terminal (Fig. 3 and 4). Two of these sites, corresponding to detection clusters 1 and 3 in the northeast, were active prior to the development of the LNG terminal. A new flaring site, detection cluster 4, emerged in 2022 and experienced a partial cessation of activity in late 2023. This coincided with the activation of a large flare stack located inland to the east of the LNG trains, identified as detection cluster 2 (Fig. 5). Our estimations of instantaneous flow rates [Flaring] from this large stack (detection cluster 2) indicate a tenfold increase in the flared volume compared to the older flare within cluster 4, rising from a maximum of 0.5 to 5 million cubic meters per day. Notably, the mean temperature of the older flare exhibited a step-change increase at the same time that the flare stack at the LNG terminal commenced operation. This may suggest an alteration in the flaring infrastructure or a change in gas composition at the older site.
Figure 3. Locations of the four distinct flaring sites in 2018-2025 detected with VNF supper-resolution method.
Analysis of the visible light signal [11] emanating from cluster 2 (Fig. 6), as observed by the VIIRS Day-Night Band (DNB), correlates with the VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) observations in the short-wave infrared channels. During periods of active flaring in 2024 and 2025, the DNB radiances were three to five orders of magnitude brighter than the signal from electric lights at the LNG terminal in preceding years.
Figure 4. Map of VNF detections near the Arctic LNG 2 terminal with the super-resolution cluster boundaries in latitude-longitude (left) and Universal Transverse Mercator (right) projections.
Data gaps occurring during the extended periods of sunlit nights in summer can be supplemented with data from the NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) fire detection product [12]. Although FIRMS is less sensitive to flares [13] than VNF and it does not report flare temperature and radiative heat, the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) values from FIRMS can be regressed against VNF radiative heat for a given flare, as illustrated in Figure 7. In the winters of 2023-24 and 2024-25, continuous flaring at the stack within cluster 2 was detected by VNF, with only limited detections by NASA FIRMS. However, in August-September 2025, when sunlit nights precluded VNF detection, NASA FIRMS detections indicated significant flaring activity. The absence of FIRMS detections in June-July 2025 may be interpreted as a partial shutdown of the LNG site.
Conclusion
While open-source intelligence (OSINT) derived from single satellite images can provide valuable visual confirmation of activities such as gas flaring at the Arctic LNG 2 terminal, it is crucial to distinguish this approach from the rigorous scientific methodology of multispectral remote sensing. Techniques like VIIRS Nightfire and the analysis of nighttime lights data offer a far more comprehensive and quantitative understanding of these industrial activities. Unlike single-image analysis, these scientific methods utilize multiple spectral bands to detect thermal signatures, estimate flared gas volumes, and monitor trends over time with greater accuracy and specificity. This detailed, data-driven approach is essential for a thorough environmental assessment and for tracking the operational dynamics of complex industrial sites in remote and environmentally sensitive regions like the Arctic.
Further, our analysis indicates comparable amounts of flaring during the winters of 2024 and 2025, suggesting a degree of resilience at the site [14] despite the sanctions against Russia, with a possible window for a partial shutdown occurring in June-July 2025 based on the lack of NASA FIRMS detections.
Figure 5. Flaring time-series profiles for VNF detection clusters 4 (old) and 2 (new) at Arctic LNG 2.
Figure 6. Time-series profile of brightness of the visible lights (VIIRS DNB) at VNF detection cluster 2.
Figure 7. Fill-in with NASA FIRMS detections in the summer sunlit period of May-September 2025.
References
[1] https://www.gem.wiki/Arctic_LNG_2_Terminal
[4] https://www.pgjonline.com/news/2024/october/arctic-lng-2-train-shuts-down-commercial-operations
[7] https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/1/14
[8] https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/4/395
[9] https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/16/3078
[10] https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/19/4760
[11] https://repository.mines.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/22580e81-bcb3-4008-b505-e884cebf4391/content
[12] https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/
[13] https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/5/1189
[14] https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/sanction-proof-russias-arctic-ambitions-china-factor/
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
About the Authors
Mikhail Zhizhin, Research Associate, Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines
Mikhail Zhizhin, M.Science in mathematics from the Moscow State University in 1984, Ph.D. in computational seismology and pattern recognition from the Russian Acad. Sci. in 1992. Research positions from 1987 to 2012 in geophysics, space research and nuclear physics at Russian Acad. Sci., later at NOAA and CU Boulder. Currently he is a researcher at the Earth Observation Group at Colorado School of Mines. His applied research fields evolved from high performance computing in seismology, geodynamics, terrestrial and space weather to deep learning in remote sensing. He is developing new machine learning algorithms to better understand the Nature with Big Data.
Morgan Bazilian
Director, Payne Institute and Professor of Public Policy
Morgan Bazilian is the Director of the Payne Institute and a Professor of public policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Previously, he wD.as lead energy specialist at the World Bank. He has over two decades of experience in the energy sector and is regarded as a leading expert in international affairs, policy and investment. He is a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Christopher Elvidge
Senior Research Associate, Director of Earth Observation Group
Christopher D. Elvidge has decades of experience with satellite low light imaging data, starting in 1994. He pioneered nighttime satellite observation on visible lights, heat sources including gas flares and wildfires, as well as bright lit fishing vessels. He led the development of these nighttime remote sensed products with images from DMSP, JPSS, and Landsat satellites. These data are very popular and used globally in both public and private sectors. As of February 2018, he has more than 11,000 scholarly publication citations.
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