PAYNE INSTITUTE COMMENTARY SERIES: COMMENTARY

By Mikhail Zhizhin, Morgan Bazilian and Christopher Elvidge

April 23, 2025

The Arctic LNG 2 project operated by Novatek, Russia’s largest independent natural gas producer, represents a significant undertaking in the global energy sector [1]. Situated on the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic region, this ambitious project aims to tap into vast natural gas reserves and establish Russia as a leading exporter of LNG. The terminal is designed to eventually consist of three liquefaction trains, with a total planned annual production capacity of 19.8 million metric tons of LNG. This capacity is crucial for Russia’s strategic goal of significantly increasing its share in the global LNG market, targeting a substantial portion of the expanding demand, particularly in Asia.

Initially, the project garnered international interest and participation, with stakeholders including France’s Total Energies, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), and a consortium of Japan’s Mitsui and JOGMEC. However, the imposition of increasingly stringent Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine [2] has led to the withdrawal of some of these international partners, significantly altering the project’s profile, and appearing to stall or stop its operations

Despite these challenges, recent media reports [3] indicate a resumption of operational activities, including the commissioning of the second production train. This progress, evidenced by a few mid- and high-resolution daytime satellite images detecting a visible gas flare, contrasts sharply with the ongoing difficulties in securing buyers for its LNG and the logistical complexities arising from sanctions targeting shipping and financial transactions [4].

The approximate coordinates for the Arctic LNG 2 terminal, where both Train 1 and Train 2 are located, are 70.997 degrees North and 73.841 degrees East. Recent satellite imagery from March and April 2025 shows the locations of Train 1 and Train 2 at the Arctic LNG 2 terminal in the Gydan Peninsula, Russia. One such image from March 2025 by Planet Labs/REUTERS/SCANPIX (Fig. 1) shows Train 1 (lower) and Train 2 (upper) [5]. Additionally, European Sentinel-2 satellite images [6] from early April 2025 (Fig. 2) captured flaring activity at both Train 1 and Train 2 and at the flare stack inland to the east from the trains.

Using nighttime visible and infrared channels

Gas flaring is a standard practice at LNG terminals for safety and operational purposes, and given the scale of Arctic LNG 2 and the observed flaring, it is no surprise that this activity would generate a thermal signature detectable at night by our VIIRS Nightfire and nighttime lights algorithms.

The fact that European Sentinel 2 satellite imagery has already visually detected gas flaring at the Arctic LNG 2 site during daytime indicates that the flaring is substantial enough to be observed from space. VIIRS Nightfire [7], with its specific sensitivity to the thermal emissions from gas flares through short-wave infrared bands, is therefore well-suited for detecting this activity, provided cloud-free nighttime observations are available. Major flaring events are also likely to result in a noticeable increase in the overall nighttime light intensity around the terminal.

When comparing the utility of VIIRS Nightfire and VIIRS nighttime lights data for monitoring gas flaring at the Arctic LNG 2 terminal, several factors come into play, including accuracy, sensitivity, the ability to distinguish flares from other light sources, and the frequency of updates. VIIRS Nightfire demonstrates higher accuracy in specifically identifying gas flares due to its utilization of short-wave infrared bands that are sensitive to the high temperatures characteristic of combustion. Nighttime lights data from the VIIRS day and night band (DNB), with its broader spectral range and much higher sensitivity to visible light [8], can detect even smaller flares, but may lead to false positives where increased light intensity could be due to various operational activities at the terminal rather than solely from gas flaring.

In terms of the frequency of updates, both VIIRS Nightfire and DNB nighttime light data are available from three satellites Suomi NPP, NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 on a daily basis with up to ten satellite overpasses per night, providing frequent opportunities for continuous monitoring of flares. However, the Arctic environment presents challenges for both data types due to persistent cloud cover and extended periods of sunlit nights in summer, which can limit the number of usable cloud-free observations [9].

On April 22, 2025, a significant explosion followed by a large fire appears to have occurred at the 51st Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate near Kirzhach, in Russia’s Vladimir Oblast, northeast of Moscow.

Satellite data confirms that an initial blast triggered ongoing secondary detonations throughout the night and into the next day. ¹ Russian authorities reported four injuries and evacuated around 450-500 people from nearby villages, declaring a local state of emergency. Officially, Russia’s Ministry of Defense blamed the incident on a violation of safety protocols during work with explosives. ² However, Ukrainian officials and media suggest the possibility of a Ukrainian long-range drone strike targeting munitions, potentially during unloading near railway lines, although Ukraine has not formally claimed responsibility.³ The facility is described as one of Russia’s largest arsenals, reportedly storing over 100,000 tons of various weapons, including missiles and artillery ammunition.

The VIIRS Nightfire⁴ detected intense thermal anomalies from large fires at the Kirzhach arsenal. The linked animation displays these detections captured over multiple satellite passes. In the animation, red rectangular footprints represent individual VIIRS infrared M-band pixel detections, with brighter rectangles signifying greater fire radiative power (heat intensity). Covering a large portion of the arsenal, the numerous overlapping detections show widespread and intense fire activity throughout the night, consistent with reports of continuous secondary detonations and a major blaze engulfing the ammunition storage site.

References

1. https://www.businessinsider.com/blast-rocks-russian-ammo-depot-kremlin-says-explosives-mishandled-2025-4
2. https://www.newsweek.com/enormous-russian-arms-depot-explodes-emptying-nearby-villages-2063032
3. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/destroyed-arsenal-near-moscow-what-was-stored-1745337569.html#:~:text=In%20total%2C%20the%20arsenal%20held%20approximately%20105%2C000%20tons%20of%20weaponry.
4. https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/5/9/4423

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Mikhail Zhizhin, Research Associate, Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines

Mikhail Zhizhin, M.Science in mathematics from the Moscow State University in 1984, Ph.D. in computational seismology and pattern recognition from the Russian Acad. Sci. in 1992. Research positions from 1987 to 2012 in geophysics, space research and nuclear physics at Russian Acad. Sci., later at NOAA and CU Boulder. Currently he is a researcher at the Earth Observation Group at Colorado School of Mines. His applied research fields evolved from high performance computing in seismology, geodynamics, terrestrial and space weather to deep learning in remote sensing. He is developing new machine learning algorithms to better understand the Nature with Big Data.

Morgan Bazilian
Director, Payne Institute and Professor of Public Policy

Morgan Bazilian is the Director of the Payne Institute and a Professor of public policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Previously, he wD.as lead energy specialist at the World Bank. He has over two decades of experience in the energy sector and is regarded as a leading expert in international affairs, policy and investment. He is a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Christopher Elvidge
Senior Research Associate, Director of Earth Observation Group

Christopher D. Elvidge has decades of experience with satellite low light imaging data, starting in 1994. He pioneered nighttime satellite observation on visible lights, heat sources including gas flares and wildfires, as well as bright lit fishing vessels. He led the development of these nighttime remote sensed products with images from DMSP, JPSS, and Landsat satellites. These data are very popular and used globally in both public and private sectors. As of February 2018, he has more than 11,000 scholarly publication citations.

ABOUT THE PAYNE INSTITUTE

The mission of the Payne Institute at Colorado School of Mines is to provide world-class scientific insights, helping to inform and shape public policy on earth resources, energy, and environment. The Institute was established with an endowment from Jim and Arlene Payne and seeks to link the strong scientific and engineering research and expertise at Mines with issues related to public policy and national security.

The Payne Institute Commentary Series offers independent insights and research on a wide range of topics related to energy, natural resources, and environmental policy. The series accommodates three categories namely: Viewpoints, Essays, and Working Papers.

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DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, viewpoints, or official policies of the Payne Institute or the Colorado School of Mines.