Payne Commentary Series - Payne Institute for Public Policy

Nuclear and SMR Non‑Fuel Critical Minerals Supply Chain: An Emerging Fourth Value Chain 3/11/2026

Nuclear and SMR Non‑Fuel Critical Minerals Supply Chain: An Emerging Fourth Value Chain

Kruthika A. Bala and Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow R.J. Johnston write about how as Canada expands its nuclear ambitions through small modular reactors (SMRs) and legacy technologies such as CANDU and AP-1000 reactor designs, a new strategic value chain for critical minerals demand is emerging. The nuclear sector is emerging as a fourth value chain for critical minerals, alongside clean energy, defence, and artificial intelligence/semiconductors. March 11, 2026.

Indonesia Nickel Stakeholder Feedback Sheds Additional Light on Challenges for ASM 3/4/2026

Indonesia Nickel Stakeholder Feedback Sheds Additional Light on Challenges for ASM

Matt Lee, Payne Institute Critical Minerals Program Manager Clarkson Kamurai, and Sustainable Finance Lab Director Brad Handler write about how ASM presents both opportunities and risks in Indonesia. Looking at ASM companies’ limited capability and pointed to how even informal ASM is integrated into larger local actors’ planning. March 4, 2026.

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security? 2/20/2026

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security?

Payne Institute Fellow Andrei Covatariu and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how energy has, once again, been discussed less as a commodity and more as a component of industrial and geopolitical power. In this environment, the meaning of energy security extends beyond fuel diversification to encompass broader questions of economic resilience and systemic stability. February 20, 2026.

Strategic Intervention to Rebuild Semiconductor Minerals Capacity in the West 2/12/2026

Strategic Intervention to Rebuild Semiconductor Minerals Capacity in the West

Payne Institute Student Researcher Shane Sethi, Jonah Allen, and Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange write about how semiconductors are the foundational components of modern technology; integrated circuits (ICs), which are complex layers of interconnected semiconductors, now dominate global semiconductor trade and underpin most high-value electronics. Recent efforts to address supply chain vulnerabilities and rebuild domestic manufacturing depend on a stable and secure supply of critical components. February 12, 2026.

Waste Not: Reimagining Mine Liabilities as Energy Assets 1/14/2026

Waste Not: Reimagining Mine Liabilities as Energy Assets

Payne Institute Student Researcher Sravan Lavudya and Geothermal and Low Carbon Technologies Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how as the US looks to minimize its reliance on foreign critical minerals, we must contend with the implications of increased domestic extraction and processing, neither of which are low impact. They explore how operators are reimagining the pieces of the process, turning mine tailings into assets and repurposing existing mine infrastructure. January 14, 2026.

Powered by Place 1/8/2026

Powered by Place

Payne Institute Native American Mineral and Energy Sovereignty (NAMES) Director Richard Luarkie, Shane Seibel, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how Native Nations stand at the threshold of a rare and defining opportunity because the global energy landscape is reorganizing the economy, and the lands Indigenous peoples have collectively owned for thousands of years now sit at the center of what the world needs. January 8, 2025.

Articulating Value in Tribal Mineral Development 1/7/2028

Articulating Value in Tribal Mineral Development

Payne Institute Native American Mining and Energy Sovereignty (NAMES) Research Associate Alex Brunson writes about how in Indian Country federal investment at historic levels and global demand for critical minerals accelerating, the question is no longer whether resource-based development in Indian Country can occur, but how it will be structured; extractively and short-term, or sovereign, research-driven, and value-added. January 7, 2026.

Argentina’s Copper Opportunity 11/13/2025

Argentina’s Copper Opportunity

Payne Institute Critical Minerals Research Associate Isabel Guajardo writes about how Argentina stands at a pivotal juncture in its mining trajectory. With 76 copper projects officially recognized by the government across eight of the country’s 24 provinces, the nation is gradually emerging as a new player in the global copper market. November 13, 2025.

From Criticality to Bankability: A Structural Taxonomy for Strategic Minerals 11/12/2025

From Criticality to Bankability: A Structural Taxonomy for Strategic Minerals

Kruthika A. Bala and Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Robert J. Johnston introduce the Critical Metals, Minerals, and Materials (CM3) taxonomy, a structural–financial model for assessing mineral bankability. Unlike conventional criticality frameworks that focus on geological scarcity or import dependence, CM3 identifies the economic and institutional conditions that determine whether projects can attract private investment. November 12, 2025.

Planning, Policies, and Governance: The Importance of Strategy When it Comes to Climate Finance for Small Island Developing States 10/13/2025

Planning, Policies, and Governance: The Importance of Strategy When it Comes to Climate Finance for Small Island Developing States

Daniel Flores, Julia Eichhorn, Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir, and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez write about how ramping up climate finance flows for adaptation is critical to addressing the irreversible impacts of climate change, but this alone will not be enough to protect (SIDS). This commentary presents an overview of the status of strategic adaptation document submissions across SIDS and the overall level of environments for adaptation investments. October 13, 2025.

Small Costs for Large Gains: Climate Resilience in Small Island Developing States 10/13/2025

Small Costs for Large Gains: Climate Resilience in Small Island Developing States

Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez write about how Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are increasingly affected by the growing impacts of climate hazards, including tropical cyclones, storm surges, increases in temperature, heatwaves, droughts, coastal and riverine flooding, changing precipitation patterns, and sea level rise among others. Until now, international adaptation and mitigation efforts have paid insufficient attention to these vulnerable island nations. October 13, 2025.

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country 10/1/2025

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country

Payne Institute NAMES Research Associate Alex Brunson, Student Researcher Elise Previdi, NAMES Director Richard Luarkie, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the U.S. is projected to experience a significant increase in demand for power capacity to meet the needs of its rapidly expanding network of data centers. These require unprecedented levels of energy and computational power, which can be supported by forming strategic partnerships with Native Nations and placing some of this high-tech infrastructure on Native American lands. October 1, 2025.

The Fastest Path to Strategic Mineral Security 8/21/2025

The Fastest Path to Strategic Mineral Security

Payne Institute Senior Advisor Rick Tallman writes about how the United States is facing a critical minerals emergency. While other nations also produce critical minerals, the U.S. currently lacks the domestic processing capacity to convert raw materials into usable products. Without modern infrastructure, even domestic or ally-sourced materials cannot reliably flow into U.S. markets. August 21, 2025.

Best Methods for Abandoning an Idle Oil Well and the Longevity of Wellbore Cement 8/21/2025

Best Methods for Abandoning an Idle Oil Well and the Longevity of Wellbore Cement

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Jim Crompton, Student Researcher Vandan Bhalala, and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how plugging and abandoning an idle oil well is a critical process in oil and gas operations during the later stages of the life of a wellbore, environmental, safety and economic perspectives. They look at the best methods for abandoning an idle oil well, as well as the durability and longevity of cement barrier used in wellbores against leakage of methane gas. August 21, 2025.

Keeping Up with Carbon: Key Changes for 45Q Tax Credits Under “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and Possible Impacts 8/18/2025

Keeping Up with Carbon: Key Changes for 45Q Tax Credits Under “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and Possible Impacts

Payne Institute Student Researcher Emma Jones Fredrickson and Payne Institute Geothermal and CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) was signed into law on July 4th of this year, with some regulations aimed at incentivizing carbon capture and storage. They we aim to provide a clear description of its final form and implications for stakeholders. August 18, 2025.

Salty Solutions: Tapping Geothermal Brines for Rare Earth Elements 8/5/2025

Salty Solutions: Tapping Geothermal Brines for Rare Earth Elements

Payne Institute Student Researcher Emma Jones Fredrickson and Payne Institute Low Carbon Energy Technologies Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how as ever changing policies strain trade relationships between the U.S. and China, rare earth elements (REEs) provide China with leverage in negotiations, adding renewed urgency to seek alternative, domestic sources of these high-value materials. REE mining is accompanied by environmental contamination risks and potential impacts to human health, necessitating new solutions for sustainable mining practices. August 5, 2025.

MP Materials Corporation-Department of Defense Partnership 7/30/25

MP Materials Corporation-Department of Defense Partnership

Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Director Brad Handler along with PhD candidate Sangita Gayatri Kannan and Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange write about how earlier this month, MP Materials Corp. (MP), the U.S.’s only producing rare-earth mining company, announced a partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). July 30, 2025.

Bridging the Energy Access Divide: A Policy Gap Analysis of 12 African National Energy Compacts Under Mission 300 7/9/2025

Bridging the Energy Access Divide: A Policy Gap Analysis of 12 African National Energy Compacts Under Mission 300

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah writes about how Africa stands at a pivotal juncture in its energy trajectory, where bold aspirations for universal electrification by 2030 confront entrenched structural and institutional barriers. In response to this pressing challenge, twelve African governments have aligned themselves with the World Bank’s Mission 300 Energy Compacts, committing to universal access through a suite of reform-oriented and infrastructure-driven strategies. July 9, 2025.

Tokenizing the Environmental Attributes of Liquefied Natural Gas 7/9/2025

Tokenizing the Environmental Attributes of Liquefied Natural Gas

Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Director Brad Handler and student researcher Mark McCurdy write about how efforts to combat emissions of global warming/greenhouse gases are spawning the development of systems to track, record and share the carbon footprint and other environmental attributes of various operations. Methane emissions from the natural gas industry. July 9, 2025.

The Importance of Military Steel Production in Large-Scale Conflicts 7/7/2025

The Importance of Military Steel Production in Large-Scale Conflicts

Gregory Wischer and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about the importance a consistent steel supply chain for US national defense. A hard, strong alloy of iron, carbon, and other elements, it is used in platforms like attack submarines, long-range bombers, mobile missile launchers, as well as munitions like torpedoes, standoff missiles, and long-range missiles and rockets. July 7, 2025.

VIIRS Nightfire Version 4.0 Now Operational Across Suomi NPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21 satellites 7/2/2025

VIIRS Nightfire Version 4.0 Now Operational Across Suomi NPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21 satellites

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin, Earth Observation Director Christopher Elvidge, and Morgan Bazilian write about the new version of VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) 4.0 and how it significant improvements in 5 areas. As of July 1, 2025, the new version of the VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) algorithm Version 4.0 is available for all three VIIRS satellites: Suomi NPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21. This release marks a significant advance in nighttime thermal anomaly detection and characterization, offering researchers and practitioners enhanced capabilities across a wide range of applications, from wildfire monitoring to industrial flaring assessment. July 2, 2025.

Infrared Anomaly Near Fordow: Detection and Analysis of a Pre-Bombing Event 6/24/25

Infrared Anomaly Near Fordow: Detection and Analysis of a Pre-Bombing Event

Payne Institute Research Fellow Mikhail Zhizhin and Director Morgan Bazilian write about the night of June 22, 2025, prior to the deep penetration bombing of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, an infrared anomaly was detected by VIIRS approximately 3 kilometers north of the facility. June 24, 2025.

Rapid Conflict Monitoring of Israeli Strikes on Iran in June, 2025 using VIIRS Nightfire Data

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin, Earth Observation Group Director Christopher Elvidge, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about the thermal anomalies detected by the VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) algorithm in relation to reported Israeli military strikes on Iranian territory beginning June 13, 2025. Leveraging VNF’s ability to identify high-temperature combustion sources such as industrial flares, wildfires, and crucially, explosions and fires in conflict zones, this analysis aims to provide an independent assessment of the recent events. June 18, 2025.

Payne Introduces a Critical Mineral Markets Primer 6/17/2025

Payne Introduces a Critical Mineral Markets Primer

Payne Institute Affiliated Partner Rebecca Jackson and Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how as the urgency for the US and OECD to develop critical minerals supply chains grows, we believe that a fundamental underpinning for that effort will be understanding and expanding market mechanisms that convene buyers and sellers and support mineral price discovery. To that end, we introduce a Critical Minerals Markets Primer detailing the nature of critical minerals transactions and how such transactions may evolve given technology and market growth. June 17, 2025.

A Study of Terminal Decline Rates of Oil & Gas Wells 6/9/2025

A Study of Terminal Decline Rates of Oil & Gas Wells

Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler, Student Researchers Vandan Bhalala and Liam O’Byrne, and Faculty Fellow Jim Crompton write about how in the United States alone, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates that there may be nearly 4 million inadequately decommissioned oil and gas wells. They also collectively are a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, a driving force behind global warming. A climate mitigation business model is emerging in which a project developer undertakes to properly plug a leaking abandoned wellbore to stop its fugitive emissions. June 9, 2025.