Infrared Anomaly Near Fordow: Detection and Analysis of a Pre-Bombing Event
Infrared Anomaly Near Fordow: Detection and Analysis of a Pre-Bombing Event
PAYNE INSTITUTE COMMENTARY SERIES: COMMENTARY
June 24, 2025
On the night of June 22, 2025, prior to the deep penetration bombing [1] of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant located at 34.8845°N 50.9981°E [2], an infrared anomaly was detected by VIIRS approximately 3 kilometers north of the facility. This location is distinct from the enrichment plant itself. The anomaly was observed by two VIIRS satellites at 2025-06-21 22:57:18.789 UTC (two pixels) and 2025-06-21 23:23:40.796 UTC (four pixels). Using the VIIRS Nightfire algorithm [3], the detected heat sources were estimated to have a temperature of 1200 K and a radiative heat output of 2 MW. Animation of the temporal progression of an infrared anomaly, captured by two sequential VIIRS satellite overpasses (approximately 30 minutes apart), can be downloaded here.
VIIRS-detected heat anomaly, observed by two satellite overpasses with a 26-minute delay, preceding the deep penetration bombing of the enrichment plant. Square size reflects pixel footprint in the satellite image. Pixel transparency is inverse to the detected radiative heat.
A probable explanation for this infrared anomaly, especially considering its proximity but not direct co-location with the enrichment plant, is the neutralization of air defense system missile launch pads. This hypothesis aligns with potential pre-emptive actions or engagements that might precede or accompany military operations targeting a strategic facility like an enrichment plant. The thermal signature could have resulted from missile launches (brief, intense heat), but it is more likely to be linked, because of the satellite-detected duration and temperature, to secondary effects such as the destruction or disabling of such systems (e.g., explosions, fires) as part of a neutralization effort.
The Al Jazeera report, citing its fact-checking agency Sanad [4], indicates that a damaged air defense site designed to shield the Fordow nuclear reactor was hit during the US strikes. This damage occurred in conjunction with two craters visible in the daytime high-resolution images resulting from bunker-busting bombs, suggesting the air defense system was targeted as part of the broader operation.
Figure 2 – Air defense system at Fordow nuclear facility, before (left) and after (right) the US strikes | Planet Labs PBC, verified by Sanad, Al Jazeera’s fact-checking agency.
References
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordow_Uranium_Enrichment_Plant
[3] Elvidge, C. D., Zhizhin, M., Hsu, F.-C., & Baugh, K. E. (2013). VIIRS Nightfire: Satellite Pyrometry at Night. Remote Sensing, 5(9), 4423-4449. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5094423
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Mikhail Zhizhin, Research Associate, Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines
Mikhail Zhizhin, M.Science in mathematics from the Moscow State University in 1984, Ph.D. in computational seismology and pattern recognition from the Russian Acad. Sci. in 1992. Research positions from 1987 to 2012 in geophysics, space research and nuclear physics at Russian Acad. Sci., later at NOAA and CU Boulder. Currently he is a researcher at the Earth Observation Group at Colorado School of Mines. His applied research fields evolved from high performance computing in seismology, geodynamics, terrestrial and space weather to deep learning in remote sensing. He is developing new machine learning algorithms to better understand the Nature with Big Data.
Morgan Bazilian
Director, Payne Institute and Professor of Public Policy
Morgan Bazilian is the Director of the Payne Institute and a Professor of public policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Previously, he wD.as lead energy specialist at the World Bank. He has over two decades of experience in the energy sector and is regarded as a leading expert in international affairs, policy and investment. He is a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
ABOUT THE PAYNE INSTITUTE
The mission of the Payne Institute at Colorado School of Mines is to provide world-class scientific insights, helping to inform and shape public policy on earth resources, energy, and environment. The Institute was established with an endowment from Jim and Arlene Payne and seeks to link the strong scientific and engineering research and expertise at Mines with issues related to public policy and national security.
The Payne Institute Commentary Series offers independent insights and research on a wide range of topics related to energy, natural resources, and environmental policy. The series accommodates three categories namely: Viewpoints, Essays, and Working Papers.
Visit us at www.payneinstitute.mines.edu
FOLLOW US
DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, viewpoints, or official policies of the Payne Institute or the Colorado School of Mines.