Defense Industrial Base

The U.S. Defense Industrial Base is the physical foundation of American military power. Every artillery shell, jet, missile, tank, and ship is the end product of complex supply chains stretching from mines and smelters to machine shops and advanced manufacturing facilities. The era of strategic competition has unleashed new mineral dependencies and material chokepoints. Economic coercion by adversaries means industrial resilience is a national security issue.

Our research identifies structural vulnerabilities in defense critical materials, sub-tier suppliers, capital flows, surge capacity, and production timelines, and proposes policy-relevant approaches to fortify U.S. and allied defense capacity for both present demands and future wars.

 

For media or interview inquiries, or for more information about the Payne Institute for Public Policy, please contact our Deputy Director, Greg Clough, at gclough@mines.edu.

NEWS

The Millisecond Menace 6/10/2026

The Millisecond Menance

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Denis Kouroussis write about how the 800-volt DC data center promises faster, leaner AI infrastructure. But synchronized GPU power swings are turning electrical design into a millisecond-scale control problem.  June 10, 2026.

The Critical Minerals Trap Behind Directed-Energy Weapons 6/4/26

The Critical Minerals Trap Behind Directed-Energy Weapons

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Macdonald Amoah, and Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how the Pentagon’s most promising answer to the munitions crisis requires materials controlled by the adversary it is designed to deter. Directed energy weapons (DEWs), high-energy lasers (HELs), and high-power microwaves (HPMs) that promise speed-of-light engagement and costs per shot measured in dollars are marketed as the solution to the broken economics of modern air defense. June 4, 2026.

Wyoming’s uranium mining industry is making a comeback 6/2/2026

Wyoming’s uranium mining industry is making a comeback

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian is featured on this podcast about how this year, the federal government invested billions into the uranium supply chain, Six mines are operating, up from three in 2021 — and much of it in Wyoming.  June 2, 2026.

Africa’s Solar Inflection Point 5/29/2026

Africa’s Solar Inflection Point

Macdonald Amoah and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about how between June 2023 and June 2025, sub-Saharan Africa’s solar panel imports from China nearly tripled outside South Africa, rising from 3,734 MW to 11,248 MW. Twenty countries set individual import records.  They look at the trade data as its starting point and works outward. What is driving the import surge? Which countries are absorbing the volume, and why? May 29, 2026.

Stealth isn’t Strategy: Post-Stealth Warfare will be a “Dirty Mix” of Humans and Robots 5/28/2026

Stealth isn’t Strategy: Post-Stealth Warfare will be a “Dirty Mix” of Humans and Robots

Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek writes about how America’s fleet of stealth platforms is facing a crisis of relevance. The West is hurtling towards a ‘stealth cliff’ by pouring resources into platforms like the F-35.  Planned for service until 2070, this aircraft will become detectable and obsolete decades sooner. This dismantles the foundation of modern American power.  May 28, 2026.

Scaling Patriot Production: The Industrial Base Crisis Explained

Scaling Patriot Production: The Industrial Base Crisis Explained

Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how on April 10, after coalition forces had fired at least 1,700 Patriots in just five weeks, the Pentagon announced a $4.76 billion contract to accelerate production. While a seemingly forceful response, the move only highlighted the core problem.  May 18, 2026.

What’s the Future of Brazil’s Rare Earths Production? 5/14/2026

What’s the Future of Brazil’s Rare Earths Production?

Payne Institute Critical Minerals Research Associate Isabel Guajardo contributes to this article about how against the backdrop of China’s 2025 rare earth export restrictions and growing Western urgency to diversify critical mineral supply chains, the U.S.-Brazil relationship on critical minerals is advancing more through markets than through diplomacy.  May 14, 2026.

How the Gulf Energy Crisis Is Reshaping Asian Economies 5/14/2026

How the Gulf Energy Crisis Is Reshaping Asian Economies

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian writes about how when the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran responded by closing the Strait to non-aligned shipping, a theoretical risk that the military and Intelligence Community had modeled for decades has become reality. The consequences have fallen most heavily on Asia.  May 14, 2026.

The Impacts of the Iran War on Coal 5/12/2026

The Impacts of the Iran War on Coal

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Macdonald Amoah, and Senior Research Fellows RJ Johnson and Jahara Matisek write about how the Iran War is pushing Asian economies back toward coal, revealing how energy security still depends on fuels that can withstand geopolitical disruption.  May 12, 2026.

Command of the Interconnect: The Hidden Infrastructure War Beneath Artificial Intelligence 5/10/2026

Command of the Interconnect: The Hidden Infrastructure War Beneath Artificial Intelligence

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how AI’s future may hinge on an obscure material few policymakers recognize: indium phosphide, which powers the optical interconnects linking massive AI chip clusters. As China tightens export controls, the U.S. faces a strategic chokepoint in the physical infrastructure underlying AI dominance.  May 10, 2026.

From Mine to Missile: Why Material Access Does Not Equal Military Output 5/1/2026

From Mine to Missile: Why Material Access Does Not Equal Military Output

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how debates on critical minerals and defense supply chains tend to focus too heavily on material origins. While policymakers track imports and analysts watch trade with China, the defense industrial base still struggles to convert access to minerals into sustained military output. Awareness has improved, but not capability.  May 1, 2026.

Quantum chokepoints: The industrial ceiling of the tech race 5/1/2026

Quantum chokepoints: The industrial ceiling of the tech race

MacDonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how in January 2026, IonQ announced a $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology, a U.S. semiconductor foundry, to secure domestic fabrication and hardware production capacity.  The deal was framed as a step toward building fault-tolerant quantum machines at scale. However, it was a stunning move, because a company built on the mind-bending principles of quantum physics was buying a firm that specializes in the familiar world of silicon chips.  May 1, 2026.

 

How the Iran War Makes a Taiwan Crisis More Likely 4/30/2026

How the Iran War Makes a Taiwan Crisis More Likely

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how the Hormuz crisis is showing Beijing how maritime pressure can weaken rivals, test deterrence, and exploit Taiwan’s acute energy dependence.   April 30, 2026.

Why America’s best fighter jets are being made with deadweight 4/27/2026

Why America’s best fighter jets are being made with deadweight

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how China has a near monopoly on metal critical to modern warfare, and without a reliable supply of high-purity gallium the Pentagon cannot build or sustain their technological advantages.  April 27, 2026.

End of the Uncontested Sea: The Strait of Hormuz is a Trap 4/20/2026

End of the Uncontested Sea: The Strait of Hormuz is a Trap

Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek and Director Morgan Bazilian write about the Strait of Hormuz does not need to be shutdown to wreak havoc on the global economy. It has already become unreliable – and those repercussions will be longed live.  April 20, 2026.

A Closed Strait of Hormuz Risks a Global Food Security Crisis

A Closed Strait of Hormuz Risks a Global Food Security Crisis

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Gabriel Collins and Senior Research Associate Jahara Matisek write about the war in Iran and how it has done more than rattle energy markets. It has exposed an ordinary farm input as a strategic commodity. Urea is a concentrated, easy-to-transport nitrogen fertilizer that increases the yields of many crops, especially staple grains like corn, rice, and wheat. April 13, 2026.

The Foundational Metal of War: Aluminum, the Middle East War, and America’s Strategic Vulnerability 4/10/2026

The Foundational Metal of War: Aluminum, the Middle East War, and America’s Strategic Vulnerability

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Macdonald Amoah, and Senior Research Associate Jahara Matisek write about how the US military has an aluminum problem. It arises not from the metal’s rarity, but its presence everywhere;  and yet aluminum is largely overlooked as a critical defense mineral, even though militaries are utterly dependent on a steady supply of it.  April 10, 2026.

The Hidden Supply Chain Risk in AI:US Reliance on China’s Yttrium 4/9/26

The Hidden Supply Chain Risk in AI: US Reliance on China’s Yttrium

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Senior Research Associate Jahara Matisek, and Macdonald Amoah write about the biggest consequence of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout.  Aside from the water, electrical, and mineral demands, it is the scramble for gas turbines. Data centers, especially hyperscale AI centers, need power at an immense scale that many local grids cannot deliver, forcing developers to build their own large-scale natural gas generation in the race. April 9, 2026.

Energy systems research strengthens the power grid to withstand disruptions 4/7/2026

Energy systems research strengthens the power grid to withstand disruptions

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Paulo Cesar Tabares Velasco is featured in this article about how when power grids fail during sub-zero cold snaps or high winds threaten to topple power lines and spark wildfires, the vulnerabilities in the Unites States’ energy infrastructure become apparent. The gap between what our infrastructure was built to handle and what it must endure continues to widen. April 7, 2026.

Kharg Island Refinery VIIRS Nightfire Temporal Profiles 4/1/2026

Kharg Island Refinery VIIRS Nightfire Temporal Profiles

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Director Christopher Elvidge writes about how the behaviour of the flares at three refineries on Kharg Island. Two out of three were affect by the war which started on February 28. One site began to have gaps in detections, with only five in the past month. Another site exhibits a large increase in the source area of the flares. April 1, 2026.

Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance 3/24/2026

Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how a significant numbers of advanced munitions have been expended, revealing that battlefield dominance matters less than the industrial capacity to replenish critical stockpiles.  March 24, 2026.

“Dr. Copper” has a new diagnosis, and it’s not great 3/24/2026

“Dr. Copper” has a new diagnosis, and it’s not great

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian is featured on this podcast about copper’s usefulness makes it a key barometer for optimism about future economic growth. Well, the price, and that optimism, are falling.  March 24, 2026.

Recent War-Time Changes in Upstream Gas Flaring Across the Middle East Observed by VIIRS Nightfire 3/24/2026

Recent War-Time Changes in Upstream Gas Flaring Across the Middle East Observed by VIIRS Nightfire

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how a change detector for the most recent steps in flaring regime since 1 January 2025 was applied to 2,225 upstream flares identified by VIIRS Nightfire across the Middle East.  March 24, 2026.  

The Iran War Just Exposed America’s Hidden AI Chokepoint: Helium 3/23/2026

The Iran War Just Exposed America’s Hidden AI Chokepoint: Helium

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek, and Macdonald Amoah write about how to deal with helium shortages from the war in Iran, Washington must treat helium as strategic, coordinate with allies, build redundancy, and incentivize recovery technologies.  March 23, 2026.

The Iran war could sap American military power for years 3/18/2026

The Iran war could sap American military power for years

Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Macdonald Amoah contributed to this article about how the US war with Iran is devouring munitions and exhausting an already stretched navy.  The war launched in Iran will pile pressure on America’s overstretched armed forces, leaving them less prepared for a conflict in Asia. March 18, 2026.

The Pentagon is looking to nuclear waste for power 3/17/2026

The Pentagon is looking to nuclear waste for power

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Jenifer Shafer contributed to this article about how a Rhode Island start-up is working to recycle spent nuclear fuel into long-lasting power systems for the military.  Mining this atomic rubbish is particularly attractive for military applications. Vehicle convoys, for instance, are vulnerable targets. Radioactivity could power them, no refueling required. Remote outposts could use advanced reactors running on reprocessed fuel.   March 17, 2026.

Could a global economy dependent on renewable energy see less war? Experts explain 3/17/2026

Could a global economy dependent on renewable energy see less war? Experts explain

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributed to this article about how a widespread transition to renewable energy could mitigate a major cause of international conflict in a future that moves away from fossil fuels, energy and climate change.  Due to the global economy’s dependence on fossil fuels, international conflicts can arise from resource competition, terrorism and scarcity issues, the International Security analysis found.  March 17, 2026.

Every Time the World Asks “Who Are the Kurds?” There Is a Crisis in the Middle East 3/16/2026

Every Time the World Asks “Who Are the Kurds?” There Is a Crisis in the Middle East

Payne Institute Fellow Peri-Khan Aqrawi-Whitcomb writes about how whenever a “Who Are the Kurds?” explainer appears in your feed, and they’re landing right now, you already know two things: there is war somewhere in the Middle East, and someone is hoping the Kurds will help win or contain it.  Spread across Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, they are widely regarded as the largest stateless nation in the world. March 16, 2026.

Over 5,000 Munitions Shot in the Firt 96 Hours of the Iran War 3/16/2026

Over 5,000 Munitions Shot in the Firt 96 Hours of the Iran War

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how in the first 96 hours, the US-led coalition expended approximately 5,197 munitions across 35 types. This carries a munitions-only replacement bill of $10–$16 billion in four days. This represents a significant industrial burden for replacing some munitions that cannot be replenished in 4 days, 4 weeks, or even 4 months.   March 16, 2026.

Iran war sparks upheaval in niche defence metals market 3/16/2026

Iran war sparks upheaval in niche defence metals market

The Payne Institute research contributed to this article about how tungsten and germanium prices jump as conflict heightens concerns about potential shortages. The Middle East conflict is set to weigh on the already “hugely tight” market for niche metals used in defense industries, as low stocks and soaring prices raise the risk of shortages.  March 16, 2026.

Managing the War Economy 3/13/2026

Managing the War Economy

The Payne Institute contributed to this article about how main metal materials consumed so far in this current war are those that go into the drones or the missiles, which are being highly utilized.  March 13, 2026.

The Chokepoint We Missed: Sulfur, Hormuz, and the Threats to Military Readiness 3/13/2026

The Chokepoint We Missed: Sulfur, Hormuz, and the Threats to Military Readiness

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Macdonald Amoah, and Senior Research Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz affects about 20 percent of global petroleum and 20 percent of liquid natural gas transits.  It is also the subject of decades of wargaming for just this occurrence. But a lesser-known chemical also is being halted: 41 percent of global sulfur is exported. March 13, 2026.

Nuclear and SMR Non‑Fuel Critical Minerals Supply Chain: An Emerging Fourth Value Chain 3/11/2026

Nuclear and SMR Non‑Fuel Critical Minerals Supply Chain: An Emerging Fourth Value Chain

Kruthika A. Bala and Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow R.J. Johnston write about how as Canada expands its nuclear ambitions through small modular reactors (SMRs) and legacy technologies such as CANDU and AP-1000 reactor designs, a new strategic value chain for critical minerals demand is emerging. The nuclear sector is emerging as a fourth value chain for critical minerals, alongside clean energy, defence, and artificial intelligence/semiconductors.  March 11, 2026.

When the Cloud Becomes a Target: The Future of War Is Your Internet

When the Cloud Becomes a Target: The Future of War Is Your Internet

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how to defend against data centers becoming military targets, governments must prioritize geographic dispersion, treat them as critical infrastructure, and move beyond a cybersecurity-only approach. March 9, 2026.

How Chemistry and Rocket Motors Constrain American Warfighting 3/7/2026

How Chemistry and Rocket Motors Constrain American Warfighting

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how solid rocket motors—and the chemicals that fuel them—are a major limitation on America’s missile stockpiles, and one that cannot be solved by additional funding alone.  March 7, 2026.

America’s Data Center Boom Must Not Depend on Chinese Batteries 3/6/2026

America’s Data Center Boom Must Not Depend on Chinese Batteries

Jesse R. Edmondson and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the United States must build its own domestic battery supply chain to support the AI data center boom and reduce reliance on Chinese energy storage technologies.  March 6, 2026.

War in the Middle East pushes diesel prices up — other costs will likely follow 3/6/2026

War in the Middle East pushes diesel prices up — other costs will likely follow

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributed to this podcast discussing one very specific economic impact of war in the Middle East: Diesel fuel just topped $4 a gallon, and it’s likely to get even more expensive.  Even if you don’t drive a diesel truck, this price spike is going to hit you, too.  March 6, 2026.

The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions

The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how replenishing stockpiles depends on vulnerable critical mineral chains.  The expended munitions, and the minerals required to build them, are a defense-industrial problem for the West, and especially the United States.  March 5, 2026.

Conflict monitoring with VIIRS Nightfire: the war in Ukraine 3/2/2026

Conflict monitoring with VIIRS Nightfire: the war in Ukraine

Merlijn I. Dingemanse, Earth Observation Group Researcher Associate Mikhail Zhizhin and Daniele Cerra write about how leveraging the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s Nightfire product, we extract signals of conflict across Ukraine, tracking the status of heavy industry, delineating the frontline, and detecting urban combat.   March 2, 2026. 

America’s Tech Ambitions Outrunning Industrial Realities 2/25/2026

America’s Tech Ambitions Outrunning Industrial Realities

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how American reindustrialization is constrained by structural weaknesses in three physical pillars: energy capacity, industrial supply chains, and technical workforce depth.  February 25, 2025.

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security? 2/20/2026

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security?

Payne Institute Fellow Andrei Covatariu and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how energy has, once again, been discussed less as a commodity and more as a component of industrial and geopolitical power. In this environment, the meaning of energy security extends beyond fuel diversification to encompass broader questions of economic resilience and systemic stability.  February 20, 2026.

How to Supercharge the US Military’s Arsenal 2/11/2026

How to Supercharge the US Military’s Arsenal

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how with more capital-sensitive procurement policies, deeper AI integration, and smoother allied co-production, the US defense industrial base can make a serious comeback.  February 11, 2026.

Jointly rebuilding the Australian-US defence industrial base 2/11/2026

Jointly rebuilding the Australian-US defence industrial base

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how the United States’ 2026 National Defense Strategy may give Australia the impetus for accelerating its shift towards industrial sovereignty and deeper strategic economic integration with the US. But this requires more than policy alignment; it demands a concrete industrial blueprint for converting Australia’s geographic and geological advantages into tangible, shared industrial power.  February 11, 2026.

Logistics Left of Boom: Understanding Adversary Threats to the Defense Industrial Base Ahead of Conflict 2/6/2026

Logistics Left of Boom: Understanding Adversary Threats to the Defense Industrial Base Ahead of Conflict

Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how much of today’s military logistics debate focuses on what happens after production: moving equipment, munitions, and spare parts through contested domains once a crisis begins. But true logistics does not begin at the rail station, seaport, or airport; it begins months or years earlier in what might best be described as a prelogistics phase—in the mines, refineries, and factories that create military power in the first place.  February 6, 2026.

Strategy at the source: A scenario-based network analysis of defense critical minerals (DCMs) in U.S. national security doctrine 1/28/2026

Strategy at the source: A scenario-based network analysis of defense critical minerals (DCMs) in U.S. national security doctrine

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how U.S. military power depends on platforms and alliances, but its resilience depends on the availability of defense critical minerals (DCMs).  This article develops a scenario-based analytical framework that links cycles of U.S. grand strategy (doctrines of engagement vs. retrenchment) with levels of geopolitical tension (peace vs. conflict).  January 28, 2026.

A New Chance for Cash Transfers from Oil Revenues? 1/15/2026

A New Chance for Cash Transfers from Oil Revenues?

Payne Institute Fellow Noé van Hulst writes about how after the US removal of President Maduro in Venezuela, how can the US control oil revenues so that part of the oil revenues really benefit the citizens of Venezuela, given that Venezuela is one of the most corrupt regimes in the world? Direct cash transfers to citizens could, in my view, be worth exploring as an avenue, following the example of Alaska and Guyana.  January 15, 2026.

Venezuela’s Coltan and the Quiet Fragility of Tantalum and Niobium 1/13/2026

Venezuela’s Coltan and the Quiet Fragility of Tantalum and Niobium

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Fellow Jahara Matisek, Research Associate Isabel Guajardo Retamales, and Deputy Director Greg Clough write about how Venezuela shows how optionality in tantalum and niobium—not scale—could reduce US exposure to highly concentrated, geopolitically fragile supply chains.  January 13, 2026.

How to Fix America’s Broken Arsenal 1/8/2026

How to Fix America’s Broken Arsenal

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how the defense establishment has severe knowledge gaps about its own, aging industrial base.  The United States cannot build what it needs because it does not have the workforce, the factories, or the partnerships to do so.  January 8, 2026.

What Happens If the U.S. Can’t Get Enough Magnesium? You Don’t Want to Find Out. 12/23/2025

What Happens If the U.S. Can’t Get Enough Magnesium? You Don’t Want to Find Out.

Payne Institute Fellow Jahara Matisek, Alex Grant, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the U.S. will finally start refining magnesium again. Earlier this month, two companies announced a joint venture in Arkansas. It would be the first credible attempt in years to restore domestic control over a material the Pentagon must have to fight a modern war. December 23, 2025.

Operationalizing the National Defense Industrial Strategy for great power competition 11/18/2025

Operationalizing the National Defense Industrial Strategy for great power competition

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Fellow Lt. Col. Jahara “Franky” Matisek write about how actions by Moscow and Beijing to secure their own mineral supply chains signal that despite the growing prominence of digital-age economies in the 21st century, economic and military capabilities are still constrained by industrial capacity.  The United States, by contrast, remains an innovator without a foundation.  November 18, 2025.

From Criticality to Bankability: A Structural Taxonomy for Strategic Minerals 11/12/2025

From Criticality to Bankability: A Structural Taxonomy for Strategic Minerals

Kruthika A. Bala and Payne Institute Senior Research Fellow Robert J. Johnston introduce the Critical Metals, Minerals, and Materials (CM3) taxonomy, a structural–financial model for assessing mineral bankability. Unlike conventional criticality frameworks that focus on geological scarcity or import dependence, CM3 identifies the economic and institutional conditions that determine whether projects can attract private investment.  November 12, 2025.

Data Centers at Risk: The Fragile Core of American Power

Data Centers at Risk: The Fragile Core of American Power

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan Bazilian, Fellow Lt. Col. Jahara Matisek, and Col. Katrina Schweiker write about how when the supply chains for data centers and industry falter, compute slows, translating into degraded command-and-control capabilities for the US military.  November 11, 2025.

REDEFINING ENERGY SECURITY: FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND BEYOND

REDEFINING ENERGY SECURITY: FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND BEYOND

Payne Institute Fellow Andrei Covatariu writes about how energy security has been redefined over the years, and is getting more difficult to assess.  Any such assessment can only represent a snapshot in time, given the high uncertainty and rapidly evolving nature of global energy geopolitics; a cross-cutting factor that spans all layers and clusters alike.  November 6, 2025.

Solving the US military’s gallium dilemma requires turning trash into treasure 10/15/2025

Solving the US military’s gallium dilemma requires turning trash into treasure

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan D. Bazilian, Fellow Lt. Col. Jahara “Franky” Matisek, and Col. Katrina Schweiker write about how China announced export licensing for gallium and germanium, sharply restricting flows and creating immediate friction across global supply chains.  Even though gallium has an outsized yet overlooked strategic value, United States produces no domestic gallium.  October 15, 2025.

Quantum Sensing and the Future of Warfare: Five Essential Reforms to Stay Competitive 10/9/2025

Quantum Sensing and the Future of Warfare: Five Essential Reforms to Stay Competitive

Payne Institute Fellow Jahara Matisek, Katrina Schweiker, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how quantum sensing is primed for a breakout that will radically change both conventional and nuclear warfare, requiring essential reforms for the Department of Defense (recently renamed to the Department of War) to maintain a competitive advantage.  October 9, 2025.

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country 10/1/2025

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country

Payne Institute NAMES Research Associate Alex Brunson, Student Researcher Elise Previdi, NAMES Director Richard Luarkie, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the U.S. is projected to experience a significant increase in demand for power capacity to meet the needs of its rapidly expanding network of data centers.   These require unprecedented levels of energy and computational power, which can be supported by forming strategic partnerships with Native Nations and placing some of this high-tech infrastructure on Native American lands. October 1, 2025.

THE STATE OF CRITICAL MINERALS REPORT 2025 9/9/2025

THE STATE OF CRITICAL MINERALS REPORT 2025

The Payne Institute for Public Policy has released its third annual State of Critical Minerals Report. These reports, which accompany our annual symposium, seek to provide insights into the complex and deeply interconnected topics surrounding critical minerals.  September 9, 2025.

These Materials Could Cripple America’s Defense Industrial Base 8/28/2025

These Materials Could Cripple America’s Defense Industrial Base

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan Bazilian, Critical Minerals Program Manager Clarkson Kamurai, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how the Pentagon’s arsenal and defense industrial base is built on materials that China can turn off like a light switch. Growing uncertainty in critical mineral markets and the open weaponization of supply chains by China has prompted a paradigm shift in how the Pentagon addresses these issues.  August 28, 2025.

Shifting Centers of Power: Toward a Post-Westphalian World Order 8/2/2025

Shifting Centers of Power: Toward a Post-Westphalian World Order

Payne Institute Fellow Griffin Thompson and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how as the Russian-Ukraine war stretches into prolonged conflict and the Israeli-Hamas war viciously spirals into cross-border conflicts, a Manichean narrative of good vs. evil is used to explain their politics.  August 2, 2025.

No More Train and Pray: The Consequences of Cutting the Army’s Security Force Assistance Capability 7/22/2025

No More Train and Pray: The Consequences of Cutting the Army’s Security Force Assistance Capability

Payne Institute Fellow Jahara Matisek, Anthony Messenger and Curt Belohlavek write about how in May 2025, the Pentagon announced plans to shutter two of the Army’s six security force assistance brigades (SFABs) and to downsize Security Force Assistance Command into a small shop of about three dozen personnel within US Army Forces Command. This decision ignores clear doctrinal and operational evidence demonstrating SFABs’ strategic value.  July 22, 2025.

Minerals, Magnets, and Military Capability: China’s Rare Earth Weaponization Should Be a Wake-Up Call 7/10/2025

Minerals, Magnets, and Military Capability: China’s Rare Earth Weaponization Should Be a Wake-Up Call

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan Bazilian and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how when China imposed export controls on seven of the seventeen rare earth elements in April 2025, it wasn’t just a trade policy tweak—it was a shot across the bow of the US defense industrial base.  American reliance on foreign minerals and rare earths exposes critical vulnerabilities.  July 10, 2025.

Bridging the Energy Access Divide: A Policy Gap Analysis of 12 African National Energy Compacts Under Mission 300 7/9/2025

Bridging the Energy Access Divide: A Policy Gap Analysis of 12 African National Energy Compacts Under Mission 300

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah writes about how Africa stands at a pivotal juncture in its energy trajectory, where bold aspirations for universal electrification by 2030 confront entrenched structural and institutional barriers.  In response to this pressing challenge, twelve African governments have aligned themselves with the World Bank’s Mission 300 Energy Compacts, committing to universal access through a suite of reform-oriented and infrastructure-driven strategies.  July 9, 2025.

The Importance of Military Steel Production in Large-Scale Conflicts 7/7/2025

The Importance of Military Steel Production in Large-Scale Conflicts

Gregory Wischer and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about the importance a consistent steel supply chain for US national defense.  A hard, strong alloy of iron, carbon, and other elements, it is used in platforms like attack submarines, long-range bombers, mobile missile launchers, as well as munitions like torpedoes, standoff missiles, and long-range missiles and rockets.  July 7, 2025.

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 6/18/25

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributes on this report about how after several years of slow momentum, energy transition progress has accelerated, according to the World Economic Forum’s Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 report.  The Energy Transition Index (ETI), which benchmarks 118 countries on their current energy system performance and on the readiness of their enabling environment, finds improvements in energy equity and sustainability driven by easing energy prices, subsidy reforms, lower energy and emission intensity and increased share of clean energy. June 18, 2025.

Could peace be closer than we think? 6/9/2025

Could peace be closer than we think?

Payne Institute Fellow Noé van Hulst writes about how fossil fuel revenues fueled warfare in Ukraine and the Middle-East, despite the sanctions on Russia and Iran. Although the EU continues to discuss more stringent sanctions on Russia, there is a more silent, and perhaps more effective, force at work that may well undermine the engine of warfare: the trend of declining prices of oil and natural gas. Let’s dive a bit deeper into this trend. June 9, 2025.

The Quantum Imperative 6/2/2025

The Quantum Imperative

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian writes about how quantum is critical to US tech leadership—ignoring it risks economic, scientific, and national security setbacks.  The tip of the spear for technological dominance in the battle between the United States and China is not limited to AI, but in the future application of quantum physics to computing, measurement, and communications.  June 2, 2025. 

Can Colorado better source, produce rare earth minerals? 5/26/25

Can Colorado better source, produce rare earth minerals?

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange contributes on this article about President Donald Trump’s recent policy directives to cut the cord between China and the U.S. for rare earth minerals triggered by China’s retaliatory cut-off of certain critical minerals put a spotlight on the United State’s near-total dependence on China for minerals, products and materials essential to our economy and national defense. May 26, 2025.

From Black Gold to Green Growth: Kurdistan’s Energy Opportunity at a Crossroads

From Black Gold to Green Growth: Kurdistan’s Energy Opportunity at a Crossroads

Payne Institute Fellow Peri-Khan Aqrawi-Whitcomb writes about the Kurdistan Region’s recent multibillion-dollar oil and gas deals with U.S. companies, framing them as a pivotal moment of economic and geopolitical significance. While these agreements open the door to long-term prosperity, their success depends not only on the Kurdistan Regional Government but also on its international partners. May 26, 2025.

Future-Proofing U.S. Technology: Strategic Priorities Amid Chinese Tech Advancement 4/6/2025

Future-Proofing U.S. Technology: Strategic Priorities Amid Chinese Tech Advancement

Payne Institute Fellow Jahara “Franky” Matisek, Director Morgan Bazilian, and others write about how the technological rivalry between the United States and China transcends traditional geopolitical competition. It represents a systemic challenge that cuts across economic, security, and diplomacy domains.  The reports presented here examine critical technological domains where targeted policy action is needed to maintain U.S. strategic advantage.  April 6, 2025.

The mining executive order needs creative financial support to achieve its goals 3/31/2025

The mining executive order needs creative financial support to achieve its goals

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how the Trump Administration’s recently released executive order to speed up and support new mining and processing development projects would benefit from sourcing funds from private lenders and investors instead of public funding alone. March 31, 2025.

U.S. Delegation Visits Greenland Amid Trump Pressure Campaign 3/28/2025

U.S. Delegation Visits Greenland Amid Trump Pressure Campaign

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributed to this article about how U.S. President Donald Trump’s yearslong obsession with acquiring Greenland sparked fresh and intense backlash this week as he sent a high-profile delegation of top U.S. officials to the island—even as Greenland made clear they weren’t welcome.  Vice President J.D. Vance is the highest-ranking U.S. official to ever travel to the island.  March 28, 2025.

Greenland’s Minerals Won’t Secure the U.S. Supply Chain 3/26/2025

Greenland’s Minerals Won’t Secure the U.S. Supply Chain

Emily J. Holland, Payne Institute Fellow Joshua Busby, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how Greenland’s minerals are drawing renewed U.S. interest, but Arctic conditions, local opposition, and processing and refining challenges make near-term gains unlikely. March 26, 2025.

Hill looks to bolster Trump on minerals executive order 3/26/2025

Hill looks to bolster Trump on minerals executive order

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributes to this article about how President Trump’s executive order last week – citing the national energy emergency – directs agencies to submit mineral projects that could get priority for accelerated permitting. It authorizes the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. – created to fund projects abroad – and other agencies to finance mineral developments using the Defense Production Act. March 26, 2025.

US in ‘Final Stages’ of Agreeing to Ukraine Minerals Deal 2/24/2025

US in ‘Final Stages’ of Agreeing to Ukraine Minerals Deal: Kyiv

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributes to this article about how Kyiv and the United States are in the final stages of negotiating a minerals deal.  Ukraine has Europe’s largest reserves of titanium, used in aerospace, automotive, and medical industries, as well as uranium, the primary fuel source for nuclear power reactors and weapon production.  February 24, 2025.

Colorado School of Mines, UNSA announce third phase of sustainable mining research partnership 2/20/2025

Colorado School of Mines, UNSA announce third phase of sustainable mining research partnership

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Paul Santi is featured in this article about how the Colorado School of Mines and Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa (UNSA) in Peru announce a third phase of collaborative research on sustainable mining.  New research projects funded through the Center for Mining Sustainability will tackle topics ranging from rare earth minerals and sustainable aquifer management, to nature-based water treatment and the reuse and repurposing of mine tailings.  February 20, 2025.

Bigger than the Berlin Airlift: How NATO’s natural gas shut down a key Russian pipeline 1/29/2025

Bigger than the Berlin Airlift: How NATO’s natural gas shut down a key Russian pipeline 

Payne Institute Director, Accelerated Methane Reduction Initiative Simon Lomax, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Deputy Director Greg Clough write about how on January 10, the US Treasury Department announced the most significant sanctions on Russian oil since 2014. And on January 1, over the objections of Moscow, a contract allowing for pipeline deliveries of Russian natural gas across Ukraine and into the European Union expired.  This is an astonishing achievement, both in technical and economic terms.  January 29, 2025.  

The U.S. Military Risks Mineral Shortages in a U.S.-China War 1/23/2025

The U.S. Military Risks Mineral Shortages in a U.S.-China War

Payne Institute Fellow Gregory Wischer writes about how today, the U.S. military is at a greater risk of severe mineral shortages if a U.S.-China war were to unfold: the United States has limited mineral stockpiles; low domestic mineral production; and heavy mineral import reliance, including from its great power rival, China.  January 23, 2025.

Electrification of the joint force: Challenges and opportunities for competition in the Pacific and Arctic theaters 1/17/2025

Electrification of the joint force: Challenges and opportunities for competition in the Pacific and Arctic theaters

Joshua D. Simulcik, Fabian E. Villalobos, and Payne Institute Director Morgan D. Bazilian write about how the US Department of Defense will have to find ways to expand the portfolio of its energy sources, continue to refine its supply chains and delivery mechanisms for energy services, improve efficiency across systems, and maintain a focus on costs to increase growing demand for energy services on the battlefield.  January 17, 2025.

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