Defense Industrial Base

The U.S. Defense Industrial Base is the physical foundation of American military power. Every artillery shell, jet, missile, tank, and ship is the end product of complex supply chains stretching from mines and smelters to machine shops and advanced manufacturing facilities. The era of strategic competition has unleashed new mineral dependencies and material chokepoints. Economic coercion by adversaries means industrial resilience is a national security issue.

Our research identifies structural vulnerabilities in defense critical materials, sub-tier suppliers, capital flows, surge capacity, and production timelines, and proposes policy-relevant approaches to fortify U.S. and allied defense capacity for both present demands and future wars.

 

For media or interview inquiries, or for more information about the Payne Institute for Public Policy, please contact our Deputy Director, Greg Clough, at gclough@mines.edu.

NEWS

America’s Data Center Boom Must Not Depend on Chinese Batteries 3/6/2026

America’s Data Center Boom Must Not Depend on Chinese Batteries

Jesse R. Edmondson and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the United States must build its own domestic battery supply chain to support the AI data center boom and reduce reliance on Chinese energy storage technologies.  March 6, 2026.

War in the Middle East pushes diesel prices up — other costs will likely follow 3/6/2026

War in the Middle East pushes diesel prices up — other costs will likely follow

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributed to this podcast discussing one very specific economic impact of war in the Middle East: Diesel fuel just topped $4 a gallon, and it’s likely to get even more expensive.  Even if you don’t drive a diesel truck, this price spike is going to hit you, too.  March 6, 2026.

The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions

The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how replenishing stockpiles depends on vulnerable critical mineral chains.  The expended munitions, and the minerals required to build them, are a defense-industrial problem for the West, and especially the United States.  March 5, 2026.

Conflict monitoring with VIIRS Nightfire: the war in Ukraine 3/2/2026

Conflict monitoring with VIIRS Nightfire: the war in Ukraine

Merlijn I. Dingemanse, Earth Observation Group Researcher Associate Mikhail Zhizhin and Daniele Cerra write about how leveraging the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s Nightfire product, we extract signals of conflict across Ukraine, tracking the status of heavy industry, delineating the frontline, and detecting urban combat.   March 2, 2026. 

America’s Tech Ambitions Outrunning Industrial Realities 2/25/2026

America’s Tech Ambitions Outrunning Industrial Realities

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how American reindustrialization is constrained by structural weaknesses in three physical pillars: energy capacity, industrial supply chains, and technical workforce depth.  February 25, 2025.

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security? 2/20/2026

Variety is Not Enough. Why Can Diversification No Longer Guarantee Energy Security?

Payne Institute Fellow Andrei Covatariu and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how energy has, once again, been discussed less as a commodity and more as a component of industrial and geopolitical power. In this environment, the meaning of energy security extends beyond fuel diversification to encompass broader questions of economic resilience and systemic stability.  February 20, 2026.

How to Supercharge the US Military’s Arsenal 2/11/2026

How to Supercharge the US Military’s Arsenal

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how with more capital-sensitive procurement policies, deeper AI integration, and smoother allied co-production, the US defense industrial base can make a serious comeback.  February 11, 2026.

Jointly rebuilding the Australian-US defence industrial base 2/11/2026

Jointly rebuilding the Australian-US defence industrial base

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how the United States’ 2026 National Defense Strategy may give Australia the impetus for accelerating its shift towards industrial sovereignty and deeper strategic economic integration with the US. But this requires more than policy alignment; it demands a concrete industrial blueprint for converting Australia’s geographic and geological advantages into tangible, shared industrial power.  February 11, 2026.

Logistics Left of Boom: Understanding Adversary Threats to the Defense Industrial Base Ahead of Conflict 2/6/2026

Logistics Left of Boom: Understanding Adversary Threats to the Defense Industrial Base Ahead of Conflict

Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how much of today’s military logistics debate focuses on what happens after production: moving equipment, munitions, and spare parts through contested domains once a crisis begins. But true logistics does not begin at the rail station, seaport, or airport; it begins months or years earlier in what might best be described as a prelogistics phase—in the mines, refineries, and factories that create military power in the first place.  February 6, 2026.

Strategy at the source: A scenario-based network analysis of defense critical minerals (DCMs) in U.S. national security doctrine 1/28/2026

Strategy at the source: A scenario-based network analysis of defense critical minerals (DCMs) in U.S. national security doctrine

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how U.S. military power depends on platforms and alliances, but its resilience depends on the availability of defense critical minerals (DCMs).  This article develops a scenario-based analytical framework that links cycles of U.S. grand strategy (doctrines of engagement vs. retrenchment) with levels of geopolitical tension (peace vs. conflict).  January 28, 2026.

A New Chance for Cash Transfers from Oil Revenues? 1/15/2026

A New Chance for Cash Transfers from Oil Revenues?

Payne Institute Fellow Noé van Hulst writes about how after the US removal of President Maduro in Venezuela, how can the US control oil revenues so that part of the oil revenues really benefit the citizens of Venezuela, given that Venezuela is one of the most corrupt regimes in the world? Direct cash transfers to citizens could, in my view, be worth exploring as an avenue, following the example of Alaska and Guyana.  January 15, 2026.

Venezuela’s Coltan and the Quiet Fragility of Tantalum and Niobium 1/13/2026

Venezuela’s Coltan and the Quiet Fragility of Tantalum and Niobium

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Fellow Jahara Matisek, Research Associate Isabel Guajardo Retamales, and Deputy Director Greg Clough write about how Venezuela shows how optionality in tantalum and niobium—not scale—could reduce US exposure to highly concentrated, geopolitically fragile supply chains.  January 13, 2026.

How to Fix America’s Broken Arsenal 1/8/2026

How to Fix America’s Broken Arsenal

Macdonald Amoah, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how the defense establishment has severe knowledge gaps about its own, aging industrial base.  The United States cannot build what it needs because it does not have the workforce, the factories, or the partnerships to do so.  January 8, 2026.

What Happens If the U.S. Can’t Get Enough Magnesium? You Don’t Want to Find Out. 12/23/2025

What Happens If the U.S. Can’t Get Enough Magnesium? You Don’t Want to Find Out.

Payne Institute Fellow Jahara Matisek, Alex Grant, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the U.S. will finally start refining magnesium again. Earlier this month, two companies announced a joint venture in Arkansas. It would be the first credible attempt in years to restore domestic control over a material the Pentagon must have to fight a modern war. December 23, 2025.

Operationalizing the National Defense Industrial Strategy for great power competition 11/18/2025

Operationalizing the National Defense Industrial Strategy for great power competition

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Fellow Lt. Col. Jahara “Franky” Matisek write about how actions by Moscow and Beijing to secure their own mineral supply chains signal that despite the growing prominence of digital-age economies in the 21st century, economic and military capabilities are still constrained by industrial capacity.  The United States, by contrast, remains an innovator without a foundation.  November 18, 2025.

Data Centers at Risk: The Fragile Core of American Power

Data Centers at Risk: The Fragile Core of American Power

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan Bazilian, Fellow Lt. Col. Jahara Matisek, and Col. Katrina Schweiker write about how when the supply chains for data centers and industry falter, compute slows, translating into degraded command-and-control capabilities for the US military.  November 11, 2025.

REDEFINING ENERGY SECURITY: FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND BEYOND

REDEFINING ENERGY SECURITY: FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND BEYOND

Payne Institute Fellow Andrei Covatariu writes about how energy security has been redefined over the years, and is getting more difficult to assess.  Any such assessment can only represent a snapshot in time, given the high uncertainty and rapidly evolving nature of global energy geopolitics; a cross-cutting factor that spans all layers and clusters alike.  November 6, 2025.

Solving the US military’s gallium dilemma requires turning trash into treasure 10/15/2025

Solving the US military’s gallium dilemma requires turning trash into treasure

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan D. Bazilian, Fellow Lt. Col. Jahara “Franky” Matisek, and Col. Katrina Schweiker write about how China announced export licensing for gallium and germanium, sharply restricting flows and creating immediate friction across global supply chains.  Even though gallium has an outsized yet overlooked strategic value, United States produces no domestic gallium.  October 15, 2025.

Quantum Sensing and the Future of Warfare: Five Essential Reforms to Stay Competitive 10/9/2025

Quantum Sensing and the Future of Warfare: Five Essential Reforms to Stay Competitive

Payne Institute Fellow Jahara Matisek, Katrina Schweiker, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how quantum sensing is primed for a breakout that will radically change both conventional and nuclear warfare, requiring essential reforms for the Department of Defense (recently renamed to the Department of War) to maintain a competitive advantage.  October 9, 2025.

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country 10/1/2025

The Future of AI Runs Through Indian Country

Payne Institute NAMES Research Associate Alex Brunson, Student Researcher Elise Previdi, NAMES Director Richard Luarkie, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the U.S. is projected to experience a significant increase in demand for power capacity to meet the needs of its rapidly expanding network of data centers.   These require unprecedented levels of energy and computational power, which can be supported by forming strategic partnerships with Native Nations and placing some of this high-tech infrastructure on Native American lands. October 1, 2025.

THE STATE OF CRITICAL MINERALS REPORT 2025 9/9/2025

THE STATE OF CRITICAL MINERALS REPORT 2025

The Payne Institute for Public Policy has released its third annual State of Critical Minerals Report. These reports, which accompany our annual symposium, seek to provide insights into the complex and deeply interconnected topics surrounding critical minerals.  September 9, 2025.

These Materials Could Cripple America’s Defense Industrial Base 8/28/2025

These Materials Could Cripple America’s Defense Industrial Base

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan Bazilian, Critical Minerals Program Manager Clarkson Kamurai, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how the Pentagon’s arsenal and defense industrial base is built on materials that China can turn off like a light switch. Growing uncertainty in critical mineral markets and the open weaponization of supply chains by China has prompted a paradigm shift in how the Pentagon addresses these issues.  August 28, 2025.

Shifting Centers of Power: Toward a Post-Westphalian World Order 8/2/2025

Shifting Centers of Power: Toward a Post-Westphalian World Order

Payne Institute Fellow Griffin Thompson and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how as the Russian-Ukraine war stretches into prolonged conflict and the Israeli-Hamas war viciously spirals into cross-border conflicts, a Manichean narrative of good vs. evil is used to explain their politics.  August 2, 2025.

No More Train and Pray: The Consequences of Cutting the Army’s Security Force Assistance Capability 7/22/2025

No More Train and Pray: The Consequences of Cutting the Army’s Security Force Assistance Capability

Payne Institute Fellow Jahara Matisek, Anthony Messenger and Curt Belohlavek write about how in May 2025, the Pentagon announced plans to shutter two of the Army’s six security force assistance brigades (SFABs) and to downsize Security Force Assistance Command into a small shop of about three dozen personnel within US Army Forces Command. This decision ignores clear doctrinal and operational evidence demonstrating SFABs’ strategic value.  July 22, 2025.

Minerals, Magnets, and Military Capability: China’s Rare Earth Weaponization Should Be a Wake-Up Call 7/10/2025

Minerals, Magnets, and Military Capability: China’s Rare Earth Weaponization Should Be a Wake-Up Call

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah, Director Morgan Bazilian and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how when China imposed export controls on seven of the seventeen rare earth elements in April 2025, it wasn’t just a trade policy tweak—it was a shot across the bow of the US defense industrial base.  American reliance on foreign minerals and rare earths exposes critical vulnerabilities.  July 10, 2025.

Bridging the Energy Access Divide: A Policy Gap Analysis of 12 African National Energy Compacts Under Mission 300 7/9/2025

Bridging the Energy Access Divide: A Policy Gap Analysis of 12 African National Energy Compacts Under Mission 300

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah writes about how Africa stands at a pivotal juncture in its energy trajectory, where bold aspirations for universal electrification by 2030 confront entrenched structural and institutional barriers.  In response to this pressing challenge, twelve African governments have aligned themselves with the World Bank’s Mission 300 Energy Compacts, committing to universal access through a suite of reform-oriented and infrastructure-driven strategies.  July 9, 2025.

The Importance of Military Steel Production in Large-Scale Conflicts 7/7/2025

The Importance of Military Steel Production in Large-Scale Conflicts

Gregory Wischer and Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian write about the importance a consistent steel supply chain for US national defense.  A hard, strong alloy of iron, carbon, and other elements, it is used in platforms like attack submarines, long-range bombers, mobile missile launchers, as well as munitions like torpedoes, standoff missiles, and long-range missiles and rockets.  July 7, 2025.

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 6/18/25

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributes on this report about how after several years of slow momentum, energy transition progress has accelerated, according to the World Economic Forum’s Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 report.  The Energy Transition Index (ETI), which benchmarks 118 countries on their current energy system performance and on the readiness of their enabling environment, finds improvements in energy equity and sustainability driven by easing energy prices, subsidy reforms, lower energy and emission intensity and increased share of clean energy. June 18, 2025.

Could peace be closer than we think? 6/9/2025

Could peace be closer than we think?

Payne Institute Fellow Noé van Hulst writes about how fossil fuel revenues fueled warfare in Ukraine and the Middle-East, despite the sanctions on Russia and Iran. Although the EU continues to discuss more stringent sanctions on Russia, there is a more silent, and perhaps more effective, force at work that may well undermine the engine of warfare: the trend of declining prices of oil and natural gas. Let’s dive a bit deeper into this trend. June 9, 2025.

The Quantum Imperative 6/2/2025

The Quantum Imperative

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian writes about how quantum is critical to US tech leadership—ignoring it risks economic, scientific, and national security setbacks.  The tip of the spear for technological dominance in the battle between the United States and China is not limited to AI, but in the future application of quantum physics to computing, measurement, and communications.  June 2, 2025. 

Can Colorado better source, produce rare earth minerals? 5/26/25

Can Colorado better source, produce rare earth minerals?

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange contributes on this article about President Donald Trump’s recent policy directives to cut the cord between China and the U.S. for rare earth minerals triggered by China’s retaliatory cut-off of certain critical minerals put a spotlight on the United State’s near-total dependence on China for minerals, products and materials essential to our economy and national defense. May 26, 2025.

From Black Gold to Green Growth: Kurdistan’s Energy Opportunity at a Crossroads

From Black Gold to Green Growth: Kurdistan’s Energy Opportunity at a Crossroads

Payne Institute Fellow Peri-Khan Aqrawi-Whitcomb writes about the Kurdistan Region’s recent multibillion-dollar oil and gas deals with U.S. companies, framing them as a pivotal moment of economic and geopolitical significance. While these agreements open the door to long-term prosperity, their success depends not only on the Kurdistan Regional Government but also on its international partners. May 26, 2025.

Future-Proofing U.S. Technology: Strategic Priorities Amid Chinese Tech Advancement 4/6/2025

Future-Proofing U.S. Technology: Strategic Priorities Amid Chinese Tech Advancement

Payne Institute Fellow Jahara “Franky” Matisek, Director Morgan Bazilian, and others write about how the technological rivalry between the United States and China transcends traditional geopolitical competition. It represents a systemic challenge that cuts across economic, security, and diplomacy domains.  The reports presented here examine critical technological domains where targeted policy action is needed to maintain U.S. strategic advantage.  April 6, 2025.

The mining executive order needs creative financial support to achieve its goals 3/31/2025

The mining executive order needs creative financial support to achieve its goals

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Payne Institute Energy Finance Lab Program Director Brad Handler write about how the Trump Administration’s recently released executive order to speed up and support new mining and processing development projects would benefit from sourcing funds from private lenders and investors instead of public funding alone. March 31, 2025.

U.S. Delegation Visits Greenland Amid Trump Pressure Campaign 3/28/2025

U.S. Delegation Visits Greenland Amid Trump Pressure Campaign

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributed to this article about how U.S. President Donald Trump’s yearslong obsession with acquiring Greenland sparked fresh and intense backlash this week as he sent a high-profile delegation of top U.S. officials to the island—even as Greenland made clear they weren’t welcome.  Vice President J.D. Vance is the highest-ranking U.S. official to ever travel to the island.  March 28, 2025.

Greenland’s Minerals Won’t Secure the U.S. Supply Chain 3/26/2025

Greenland’s Minerals Won’t Secure the U.S. Supply Chain

Emily J. Holland, Payne Institute Fellow Joshua Busby, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how Greenland’s minerals are drawing renewed U.S. interest, but Arctic conditions, local opposition, and processing and refining challenges make near-term gains unlikely. March 26, 2025.

Hill looks to bolster Trump on minerals executive order 3/26/2025

Hill looks to bolster Trump on minerals executive order

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributes to this article about how President Trump’s executive order last week – citing the national energy emergency – directs agencies to submit mineral projects that could get priority for accelerated permitting. It authorizes the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. – created to fund projects abroad – and other agencies to finance mineral developments using the Defense Production Act. March 26, 2025.

US in ‘Final Stages’ of Agreeing to Ukraine Minerals Deal 2/24/2025

US in ‘Final Stages’ of Agreeing to Ukraine Minerals Deal: Kyiv

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributes to this article about how Kyiv and the United States are in the final stages of negotiating a minerals deal.  Ukraine has Europe’s largest reserves of titanium, used in aerospace, automotive, and medical industries, as well as uranium, the primary fuel source for nuclear power reactors and weapon production.  February 24, 2025.

Colorado School of Mines, UNSA announce third phase of sustainable mining research partnership 2/20/2025

Colorado School of Mines, UNSA announce third phase of sustainable mining research partnership

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Paul Santi is featured in this article about how the Colorado School of Mines and Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa (UNSA) in Peru announce a third phase of collaborative research on sustainable mining.  New research projects funded through the Center for Mining Sustainability will tackle topics ranging from rare earth minerals and sustainable aquifer management, to nature-based water treatment and the reuse and repurposing of mine tailings.  February 20, 2025.

Bigger than the Berlin Airlift: How NATO’s natural gas shut down a key Russian pipeline 1/29/2025

Bigger than the Berlin Airlift: How NATO’s natural gas shut down a key Russian pipeline 

Payne Institute Director, Accelerated Methane Reduction Initiative Simon Lomax, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Deputy Director Greg Clough write about how on January 10, the US Treasury Department announced the most significant sanctions on Russian oil since 2014. And on January 1, over the objections of Moscow, a contract allowing for pipeline deliveries of Russian natural gas across Ukraine and into the European Union expired.  This is an astonishing achievement, both in technical and economic terms.  January 29, 2025.  

The U.S. Military Risks Mineral Shortages in a U.S.-China War 1/23/2025

The U.S. Military Risks Mineral Shortages in a U.S.-China War

Payne Institute Fellow Gregory Wischer writes about how today, the U.S. military is at a greater risk of severe mineral shortages if a U.S.-China war were to unfold: the United States has limited mineral stockpiles; low domestic mineral production; and heavy mineral import reliance, including from its great power rival, China.  January 23, 2025.

Electrification of the joint force: Challenges and opportunities for competition in the Pacific and Arctic theaters 1/17/2025

Electrification of the joint force: Challenges and opportunities for competition in the Pacific and Arctic theaters

Joshua D. Simulcik, Fabian E. Villalobos, and Payne Institute Director Morgan D. Bazilian write about how the US Department of Defense will have to find ways to expand the portfolio of its energy sources, continue to refine its supply chains and delivery mechanisms for energy services, improve efficiency across systems, and maintain a focus on costs to increase growing demand for energy services on the battlefield.  January 17, 2025.

Leveraging the Defense Production Act to Stockpile Minerals 12/19/2024

Leveraging the Defense Production Act to Stockpile Minerals

Payne Institute Communications Associate Gregory Wischer, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Jahara Matisek write about how on December 3, 2024, China imposed export bans on antimony, gallium, and germanium—three elements with important defense applications. Since the U.S. relies heavily on China for these minerals, China’s new export ban could delay the manufacture of defense platforms and munitions, exacerbating already depleted defense stocks and further undermining America’s warfighting capabilities.   December 19, 2024.

The American industry that wants more government intervention 12/18/2024

The American industry that wants more government intervention

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Elizabeth Holley contributed to this article about how President-elect Donald Trump is promising to slash government regulations and even eliminate whole agencies. But one American industry, mining, is asking for more government intervention, saying national economic and military security are at stake.  December 18, 2024.

The U.S. Must Fortify Itself Against Future Mineral Export Bans 12/16/2024

The U.S. Must Fortify Itself Against Future Mineral Export Bans

Payne Institute Communications Associate Gregory Wischer, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Fellow Lt. Col. Jahara “Franky” Matisek write about how last week, China imposed export bans on antimony, gallium, and germanium—all of which are listed on China’s dual-use export control list. Other minerals on the list and, thus, at risk of future bans include aluminum, magnesium, and zinc, among others.  With many minerals, the U.S. government can increase domestic mining, processing, and recycling to help mitigate future supply cutoffs from China. Of course, building and expanding domestic capacity will take time, significant capital, and appropriate government policies, but it can be done.  December 16, 2024.

Five Bipartisan Actions on Energy Security as Trump Returns to the White House 12/4/2024

Five Bipartisan Actions on Energy Security as Trump Returns to the White House

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Accelerated Methane Program Manager Simon Lomax, and Roger Pielke, Jr. write about how Republicans and Democrats can meet in the middle on the complex set of issues that comprise energy policy – from emissions, to affordability, to reliability, to national security and geopolitics. In fact, for almost two decades, the U.S. has been a global energy leader, even as power has shifted back and forth between the two major political parties. December 4, 2024.

Five Bipartisan Actions to Protect America’s Mineral Supply Chains 11/18/2024

Five Bipartisan Actions to Protect America’s Mineral Supply Chains

Payne Institute Communications Associate Gregory Wischer and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the U.S. Congress needs to make sure critical resources are protected.  Five bipartisan actions that Congress could take are increasing mineral stockpiling, streamlining the permitting process, increasing funding for mineral projects and education, enhancing mineral supply chain transparency in government procurement, and reviving the U.S. Bureau of Mines.   November 18, 2024.

What could the Trump administration’s mineral policy look like? 11/12/2024

What could the Trump administration’s mineral policy look like?

Payne Institute Communications Associate Gregory Wischer and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the incoming administration would likely implement a mineral policy to increase US mineral production—especially extraction—while supporting American workers and companies. Specifically, this mineral policy could include imposing tariffs, streamlining permitting, and financially incentivising domestic mineral projects.  November 12, 2024.  

Critical minerals mining and Native American sovereignty: Comparing case studies of lithium, copper, antimony, nickel and graphite mining in the United States 10/24/2024

Critical minerals mining and Native American sovereignty: Comparing case studies of lithium, copper, antimony, nickel and graphite mining in the United States

Payne Institute Communications Associate Macdonald Amoah, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Fellow Dustin Mulvaney, Director Morgan Bazilian, NAMES Director Richard Luarkie, and Daniel Cardenas write about how owing to the historical patterns of colonialism and settlement, many of the remaining undeveloped mineral resources needed for a low-carbon energy transition are located on lands that have historic, ancestral, or cultural significance to Native American Tribes and Indigenous communities, as well as are near environmental-sensitive areas, managed by multiple agencies with goals across the spectra from natural resource development to cultural resource conservation.  Through a comparative case study approach, this study analyzes mining projects seeking to develop these resources.   October 24, 2024. 

Moving in the wrong direction

Moving in the wrong direction

Payne Institute’s Earth Observation Group provided the satellite data in this article about flaring emissions from global upstream oil and gas production activity increased by 7% from 2022 to 2023, according to latest Rystad Energy research. Upstream activities emit about 1 gigatonne per year of carbon dioxide (CO2) in total, with flaring contributing around 30% of those emissions in 2023 assuming 98% flaring efficiency on average. October 15, 2024.

How clean energy legislation can incentivize US mineral production 10/11/2024

How clean energy legislation can incentivize US mineral production

Payne Institute Communications Associate Gregory Wischer and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the presidential candidates disagree on much, they seem to largely agree on the need to support domestic critical mineral projects.  The next president needs to prioritize minerals and metals production in jurisdictions with high labor standards, especially the United States. Importantly, existing U.S. government programs can be modified to incentivize U.S. mineral production.  October 11, 2024.  

Payne Institute for Public Policy 2024 State of Critical Minerals Report highlights potential of mining tailings and steep nickel cost curve 10/10/2024

Payne Institute for Public Policy 2024 State of Critical Minerals Report highlights potential of mining tailings and steep nickel cost curve

A new critical minerals report from The Payne Institute for Public Policy at Colorado School of Mines highlights the vast potential from mining tailings, the steep cost curve for Nickel, new legislation focused on increasing the domestic mining of critical minerals and the U.S. government’s recent $4.9 billion of investments in mining and processing.  October 10, 2024.

THE STATE OF CRITICAL MINERALS REPORT 2024 10/10/2024

THE STATE OF CRITICAL MINERALS REPORT 2024

The Payne Institute for Public Policy and the Colorado School of Mines has released its second annual State of Critical Minerals Report. Building on last year’s report, which provided a comprehensive overview of the supply, demand, technical and political landscape for critical minerals globally, this year’s edition targets the U.S. federal response, while also examining dynamics that will impact the mining industry’s ability to meet the needs for critical minerals that are presented by the global energy transition. Highlights include the vast potential from mining tailings, the steep cost curve for Nickel, new legislation focused on increasing the domestic mining of critical minerals and the U.S. government’s recent $4.9 billion of investments in mining and processing. October 10, 2024.

CHINA, CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES, AND NATIONAL SECURITY 10/2/2024

CHINA, CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES, AND NATIONAL SECURITY

Payne Institute Fellow Joshua Busby, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Emily Holland write about how the Biden administration announced sweeping 100 percent import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles as well as the batteries and minerals that go in them. While these minerals and refined products are sourced from various countries, China heavily dominates their processing and other stages along various supply chains.  In what way is China’s domination of minerals processing, batteries, and potentially automobiles a threat to U.S. national security?  October 2, 2024. 

Indonesia ‘blood nickel’ risks too grave to ignore 9/21/2024

Indonesia ‘blood nickel’ risks too grave to ignore

Payne Institute Student Researcher Gabriel Collins, Director Morgan Bazilian, and Policy and Outreach Advisor Simon Lomax write about how manufacturers and investors should beware the reputational and operational risks of dealing in Indonesian nickel.  Earlier this month, the US government sounded the alarm over the use of forced labor in the nickel mines of Indonesia, and the major implications for the energy transition.  September 21, 2024.

The U.S. Needs to Produce More Minerals at Home. Current Policies Only Take Us Partway. 9/19/2024

The U.S. Needs to Produce More Minerals at Home. Current Policies Only Take Us Partway.

Payne Institute Communications Associate Gregory Wischer and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the U.S. government has sought to increase domestic mineral production and processing through supply side policies, however boosting production also requires ramping up demand for domestic minerals. The U.S. government is already taking some valuable steps to support demand, but there is much more it could do.  September 19, 2024.  

Senator Hickenlooper announces bipartisan legislation at the Mines Critical Minerals Symposium 9/13/2024

Senator Hickenlooper announces bipartisan legislation at the Mines Critical Minerals Symposium

The Payne Institute at Colorado School of Mines hosted Senator John Hickenlooper delivered a keynote address at our Critical Minerals Symposium on September 13.  Hickenlooper proposes national leadership and innovation for clean and responsible critical mineral sourcing. During his speech, Hickenlooper announced a pair of bipartisan bills to guide a national strategy on a clean, responsible and innovative approach to sourcing critical minerals.  September 13, 2024.
Keynote Video

Could Justice40 reproduce injustices in the critical mineral sector? 9/13/2024

Could Justice40 reproduce injustices in the critical mineral sector?

Payne Institute Research Associate Aaron Malone and Faculty Fellows, Raphael Deberdt, Nicole M. Smith, and Elizabeth A. Holley write about how the United States is reprioritizing domestic extraction and processing of critical minerals, with billions of dollars of investments. Because of their uses in low-carbon technologies, the mining and processing of these resources falls under the scope of the Justice40 Initiative, the Biden administration’s flagship environmental justice policy that prioritizes green investments to benefit communities deemed disadvantaged, including all recognized Tribes.  September 13, 2024.  

Hickenlooper, Tillis to unveil bipartisan minerals bills 9/13/2024

Hickenlooper, Tillis to unveil bipartisan minerals bills

The Payne Institute for Public Policy was pleased to host Senator John Hickenlooper for our Critical Minerals Symposium where he announced his new legislative efforts.  The two bills are intended to stimulate innovation in the U.S. to produce technologies for identifying, mining, processing and recycling minerals.  September 13, 2024.  EVENT VIDEO 

America’s mineral blind spot – the trillion-dollar opportunity hiding in plain sight 9/11/2024

America’s mineral blind spot – the trillion-dollar opportunity hiding in plain sight

Payne Institute Student Researcher Gabriel Collins, Faculty Fellow Ian Lange, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how In the sprawling mines of Utah and Arizona, where global giants extract copper and nickel by the ton; germanium, gallium, tellurium—names that don’t make headlines, but underpin the technologies of tomorrow—are discarded as waste or left ignored in tailings ponds. While China tightens its grip on these critical minerals, the US sits idle, stymied not by geology but by corporate calculus.  September 11, 2024.

Trump, Harris back mining, but producers unsatisfied 9/9/2024

Trump, Harris back mining, but producers unsatisfied

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributes to this article about how Democrats and Republicans alike have been expressing support for US metal extraction, allowing domestic miners to bask in a rare moment of bipartisan support, though they say turning that backing into barrier-clearing action remains a tough pull. September 9, 2024.

Government stockpiles of metals, materials could aid clean energy transition 9/4/2024

Government stockpiles of metals, materials could aid clean energy transition

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian on a podcast discussing the history and possible future directions of critical minerals stockpiling for energy transitions and national security.  Some experts argue that the NDS, U.S. National Defense Stockpile, could be mobilized against another threat — climate change — by helping to transform the nation’s energy infrastructure.  September 4, 2024.

The US government should build a Resilient Resource Reserve for wartime and peacetime 8/29/2024

The US government should build a Resilient Resource Reserve for wartime and peacetime

Payne Institute Communications Associate Gregory Wischer and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how if Congress proceeds—as it should—with creating a Resilient Resource Reserve, it should establish a physical stockpile that can meet the critical mineral demands of the US military in a major conflict, as well as influence domestic mineral prices to incentivize expanded US mineral production.  August 29, 2024.

Understanding the Significance of China’s Antimony Export Controls 8/22/2024

Understanding the Significance of China’s Antimony Export Controls

Payne Institute Communications Associate Gregory Wisher and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the Chinese government will probably continue to allow some antimony exports to the United States, sending a retaliatory signal but also keeping the U.S. reliant on Chinese mineral supplies.  August 22, 2024.

Geological Storage Risk Mitigation: The Way Forward 7/29/2024

Geological Storage Risk Mitigation: The Way Forward

Payne Institute Program Manager Brad Handler, Lindene E. Patton, and student researcher Siddhant Kulkarni write the fifth and last paper in a series that identified the operational, financial and business model risks through the lifecycle of a geological storage project. These papers then discussed steps that are being taken to mitigate each risk, as well as to ensure that adequate funds are available to pay for closure and for environmental damages should any occur. In addressing these risks, this series averred that the regulatory landscape appears adequate to address them. July 29, 2024.

Long Term Stewardship: Releasing Residual Liability 7/29/2024

Long Term Stewardship: Releasing Residual Liability

Payne Institute Program Director Brad Handler, student researcher Siddhant Kulkarni, and Lindene Patton write the fourth paper in a series of papers on the use of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a climate mitigation tool envisions the permanent underground storage of CO2. In a carbon geological storage project, the final phase is referred to as Long Term Stewardship (LTS). It follows the Post Injection and Site Care (PISC) phase, i.e., after the injection well has been plugged, the developer has monitored the subsurface for any CO2 leaks for the prescribed period, and the site has been “closed.” July 29, 2024.

Monitoring China’s Mineral Stockpiling and Understanding Its Military Implications 7/26/2024

Monitoring China’s Mineral Stockpiling and Understanding Its Military Implications

Payne Institute Communication Associate Gregory Wischer and Director Morgan Bazilian co-author an article about discerning when China is stockpiling – and why – is increasingly challenging given China’s increasing secrecy about mineral-related information. Concerns continue apace about the meaning of China stockpiling minerals. In addition to China’s government statements and military activities, stockpiling minerals is one potential indicator that China may be preparing for a military invasion of Taiwan. July 26, 2024.

Readying for war or being prepared for crises? China’s stockpiling of resources raises eyebrows and questions 7/18/2024

Readying for war or being prepared for crises? China’s stockpiling of resources raises eyebrows and questions

Payne Institute Fellow Gregory Wischer contributes to this article about how while China’s stockpiles are a tightly guarded state secret, analysts CNA spoke to agree that a heightened degree of resource amassing is being carried out, citing recent news reports. Grain, oil, copper, cobalt and iron ore are some of the key resources and minerals China has recently been amassing, in an alleged pattern of behaviour that has blared red for some observers and rival superpower the United States.  July 18, 2024.  

RADIOACTIVE 7/17/2024

Radioactive

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Ian Lange contributes to this article about how Energy Fuels Inc., a Denver company, is seeking to mine uranium near the Grand Canyon — and an Indigenous tribe’s long fight to stop it.  Prices for uranium rose enough for the company to seek to bring uranium ore to White Mesa from one of the company’s mothballed uranium mine sites.  July 17, 2024.

Mineral Supply Chains and Space Assets 7/9/2024

Mineral Supply Chains and Space Assets

Payne Institute Fellow Gregory Wischer, Gregory Autry, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how both the United States and China seek to build and deploy significant numbers of space assets, most of which are mineral intensive.  The mineral compositions of three important space assets—satellites, direct-ascent antisatellite weapons, and rocket bodies—require the United States to import minerals, particularly from China, for their construction.  Consequently, the US space industry, and thus the US government, faces the associated risks of supply chain disruptions that can restrict mineral availability and cause price volatility, negatively impacting space asset production. This article proposes three policies to mitigate such risks to the mineral supply chains. July 9, 2024.  

Will Congo move up the battery supply chain? 6/26/2024

Will Congo move up the battery supply chain? Strategic capitalism, friendshoring, and localized manufacturing in the time of the green transition

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Raphael Deberdt writes about how in recent years, countries where extraction of so-called green minerals occur have increasingly asserted themselves. Negatively dubbed as resources nationalism, these political decisions are more akin to a willingness to increase in-country value added for regions often suffering from centuries of colonial extractivism. In the battery sector, these strategies led to cobalt, lithium, and nickel producers aiming to develop local manufacturing of battery components. June 26, 2024.

Comparable to Germany before World War II? China’s strategic metal reserves have attracted attention, especially copper and cobalt 6/20/2024

Comparable to Germany before World War II? China’s strategic metal reserves have attracted attention, especially copper and cobalt

Payne Institute Communications Associate Greg Wischer contributes to this article about how China’s control and reserves of key mineral resources such as rare earths, lithium, copper (Copper) and cobalt (Cobalt) have increasingly attracted the attention of the United States and the West. In addition to worries about being too dependent on China for key minerals, China’s control and reserves of key minerals also make the United States and the West worried that China is preparing for a potential war.  June 20, 2024.

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty 5/28/2024

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Madeline Macmillan, Alexander Zolan, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Daniel L. Villa write about how microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations.  They develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. May, 28, 2024.

Biden’s Green Agenda Could Be In Trouble As China Moves At Breakneck Speed To Corner Key Resources 5/21/2024

Biden’s Green Agenda Could Be In Trouble As China Moves At Breakneck Speed To Corner Key Resources

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributed to this article about how President Joe Biden’s climate agenda could be in trouble as China continues to rapidly expand its control over the production of valuable minerals essential to green technology like electric vehicles.  China is growing its operations in the harvesting and production of nickel, lithium and cobalt as the U.S. and its allies suspend business at a number of plants in response to a glut in global supply.  May 21, 2024.

China Is Winning the Minerals War 5/21/2024

China Is Winning the Minerals War

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributes to this article about how western efforts to make a dent are languishing; ‘China is not just standing still waiting for us to catch up.’  Chinese mineral companies are expanding operations, supercharging supply and causing prices to drop. Their challengers can’t compete.  May 21, 2024.

SATELLITE DATA CAPTURES POWER OUTAGES IN SUDAN’S CIVIL WAR 5/19/2024

SATELLITE DATA CAPTURES POWER OUTAGES IN SUDAN’S CIVIL WAR

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin, Communications Associate Kristin Ziv, Senior Research Associate Christopher Elvidge, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how a horrible full-scale civil war in Sudan is creating chaos, anarchy, mass starvation, and the world’s largest population of internal refugees – approximately nine million.  The researchers have created a temporal profile of nighttime lights for Khartoum where seasonal variations in lights within a year can be seen, but the interannual radiance was stable until the conflict started in April 2023.  May 19, 2024.

US Lawmakers Left the LNG Pause in Place, So What Next? 5/15/2024

US Lawmakers Left the LNG Pause in Place, So What Next?

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, Policy and Outreach Advisor, Responsible Gas Simon Lomax, and Deputy Director Greg Clough write about how US lawmakers did not force President Joe Biden to lift his pause on LNG export approvals in exchange for the recent approval of a $95 billion security aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. This likely means the US Department of Energy (DOE) can complete a review of the economic and climate impacts of LNG exports, which was the stated purpose of the pause.  May 15, 2024.

Getting De-risking “Just Right” on Critical Minerals and Battery Supply Chains 4/29/24

Getting De-Risking ‘Just Right’ on Critical Minerals and Battery Supply Chains

Payne Institute Fellow, Joshua Busby, writes about how China has come to dominate both the critical minerals space and wider supply chains for the clean energy transition including batteries for electric vehicles and solar panels. With rising geopolitical tension between the two countries, U.S. policymakers have described these not only as risks to the U.S. economy and manufacturing but also as threats to U.S. national security. April 29, 2024.

East Africa’s Potential Role in US Graphite Supply Chains 4/28/24

East Africa’s Potential Role in US Graphite Supply Chains

Payne Institute Fellow, Cullen Hendrix, writes about how the impact of the green tech trade war between the United States and China, which began with US semiconductor export controls, is now being felt. China’s graphite export controls, announced in October 2023, went into force on December 1. The effects were immediate: Chinese graphite exports to the rest of the world declined by 93.3% (by volume) from the month before. April 28, 2024.

Potential for small and micro modular reactors to electrify developing regions 4/19/2024

Potential for small and micro modular reactors to electrify developing regions

Mines Faculty Guillaume L’Her, R. Scott Kemp, Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian, and Faculty Fellow Mark Deinert write about how small-scale nuclear power is typically thought of for niche markets, however recent work has suggested that it could help address the massive gaps in energy access in developing countries.  They present a global analysis of regions suitable for nuclear reactor deployment based on physical siting criteria, security, governance and economic competitiveness.  April 19, 2024.

Navigating Energy’s New Frontiers: The IEA at 50 3/6/2024

Navigating Energy’s New Frontiers: The IEA at 50

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian and Fellow Thijs Van de Graaf write about the International Energy Agency (IEA) marking its 50-year anniversary. From its origins as a relatively unknown analytical body primarily focused on oil security for a select group of OECD members, it has evolved significantly. March 6, 2024.

Biden Cracks Down on Chinese Electric Vehicles 3/1/2024

Biden Cracks Down on Chinese Electric Vehicles

Payne Institute Director Morgan Bazilian contributes to this article about how the Biden administration on Thursday ordered the U.S. Commerce Department to investigate the potential national security threats posed by Chinese-made “connected vehicles,” marking Washington’s latest push to de-risk ties from Beijing and tighten the screws on China’s tech industry. March 1, 2024.

EOG’S VIIRS SATELLITES CONFIRM DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE 2/16/2024

EOG’S VIIRS SATELLITES CONFIRM DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE

Payne Institute Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin, Communications Associate Kristin Ziv, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how using the VIIRS Nightfire satellites, the Earth Observation Group at the Payne Institute for Public Policy was able to confirm several of the recent Ukrainian drone attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in Russia that have occurred over the past several weeks.  February 16, 2024.

Does the US Military Have Enough Minerals for a Possible Conflict with China? Estimating Shortfalls for Military Materials 2/12/2024

Does the US Military Have Enough Minerals for a Possible Conflict with China? Estimating Shortfalls for Military Materials

Payne Institute Communications Associate Greg Wischer and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how the National Defense Stockpile is a tool to both reduce America’s reliance on foreign materials, especially materials from China, and to prepare for a possible conflict.  Material shortfalls can impact—and have impacted—U.S. warfighting ability. Better understanding the military’s projected shortfall quantities for individual materials would inform what materials—and corresponding applications—the U.S. military will most likely have shortfalls of during a conflict.  February 12, 2024.

LNG Exports Shouldn’t Be the Next Keystone Campaign 1/26/2024

LNG Exports Shouldn’t Be the Next Keystone Campaign

Payne Institute Fellow Liam Denning writes this article on the greenest White House the US has ever seen also happens to preside over a record-breaking domestic oil and gas boom. While that complicates Republican talking points, it also stokes a conflict within President Joe Biden’s own party that has now found its battleground: Liquefied natural gas. January 26,2024.

What is the Cost of Going Green? (Part B) 1/23/24

WHAT IS THE COST OF GOING GREEN? Perspectives from Ghana (PART B)

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Jim Crompton, Paulina Lanz, and Justine Huang are on this podcast (part B) discussing what the real costs of going green are, and who is going to pay the bill?  In Part B of the episode, Jim chats with a panel of Payne Institute student researchers from Ghana at the Colorado School of Mines – Eben Manful-Sam, John Ayaburi, Rueben Anafo and Felix Ayaburi– who help us better understand the challenges of sustainable development from a sub-Saharan Africa perspective. January 23, 2024.

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