Commentary Series - Payne Institute for Public Policy

EOG’S VIIRS SATELLITES CONFIRM DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE 2/16/2024

EOG’S VIIRS SATELLITES CONFIRM DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE

Payne Institute Research Associate Mikhail Zhizhin, Communications Associate Kristin Ziv, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how using the VIIRS Nightfire satellites, the Earth Observation Group at the Payne Institute for Public Policy was able to confirm several of the recent Ukrainian drone attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in Russia that have occurred over the past several weeks. February 16, 2024.

SOLAR SURGE PUTS PRESSURE ON SILVER SUPPLY (BUT LOOK FOR THE SILVER LINING) 2/14/24

SOLAR SURGE PUTS PRESSURE ON SILVER SUPPLY (BUT LOOK FOR THE SILVER LINING)

Payne Institute Communications Associate Kristin Ziv and Director Morgan Bazilian write about the global demand for solar panels and as it soars, so does the demand for silver – a key component in the manufacturing of photovoltaic (PV) panels. Solar installations are breaking records worldwide in both volume and low price, according to BloombergNEF. February 14, 2024.

PAYNE INSTITUTE’S EOG MEASURES CHILEAN WILDFIRES

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Mikhail Zhizhin, Christopher Elvidge, Communications Associate Kristin Ziv, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about the Chilean wildfires which could be the deadliest on record, according to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. With its VIIRS Nightfire satellites, the Earth Observation Group can detect wildfires all over the world within two hours after the satellite overpass. With this algorithm, EOG can not only detect, but characterize wildfires in size and temperature. February 9, 2024.

TRANSPARENCY THROUGH TECHNOLOGY: THE VITAL LINK BETWEEN MONITORING AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION IN CCS INITIATIVES 2/9/24

TRANSPARENCY THROUGH TECHNOLOGY: THE VITAL LINK BETWEEN MONITORING AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION IN CCS INITIATIVES

Payne Institute CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield and Project Canary’s Charlie Losche write about how the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 has catalyzed significant growth in CCS, with projections indicating a substantial increase in capture capacity by 2035. With this expansion comes challenges, notably in securing Class VI permits for CO₂ injection, and most pressingly in maintaining public trust. February 9, 2024.

STACKING 45Q WITH VOLUNTARY CARBON MARKETS 12/11/2023

STACKING 45Q WITH VOLUNTARY CARBON MARKETS

Payne Institute CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield and Fellows Siew Chiang and Mike Matson write about how CCS has been at the forefront of decarbonization commitments in public and private sectors, with the development of CCS projects rapidly accelerating in the U.S. following the signing of federal incentives of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). They explore the economic pathways for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, beginning with “credit stacking” voluntary carbon market credits and Section 45Q tax credits, with additional pieces on both the California-based Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Section 45Z tax credit. December 11, 2023.

PROLONGED DIMMING OF UKRAINIAN URBAN ILLUMINATION: A MEASURE OF CONFLICT’S IMPACT 11/15/2023

Prolonged Dimming of Ukrainian Urban Illumination: A Measure of Conflict’s Impact

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Researcher Mikhail Zhizhin writes about how natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes or pandemics trigger a short-term dimming of city lights, followed by a rapid recovery. The war in Ukraine, however, has induced a novel pattern of city lights changes: an abrupt and sustained decline in illumination from the outset of the conflict, persisting for two years with partial recovery observed in some cities. November 15, 2023.

EMPOWERING OR REPRESSIVE: NAVIGATING THE COMPLEXITIES OF RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARDS IN THE US 11/13/2023

Empowering or Repressive: Navigating the Complexities of Renewable Portfolio Standards in the US

Payne Institute Student Researcher Siddhant Kulkarni and Program Manager Anna Littlefield write about how Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) represent a strategic push by governments to usher in an era of clean, renewable energy. While RPS are not the only policy-mechanisms that incentivize renewable energy, they have been in place for decades across the world. Data from the International Renewable Energy Association (IRENA) shows that worldwide installed renewable energy capacity has almost doubled in the last decade, thanks in part to the RPS policies implemented. In the US these regulations are particular to individual states and aim to combat increasing greenhouse gas emissions and by extension, climate change. November 13, 2023.

GOVERNMENTS’ RECENT STEPS TO ADVANCE CLIMATE IMPACT; SELECT WORLD INVESTMENT FORUM HIGHLIGHTS 10/25/2023

GOVERNMENTS’ RECENT STEPS TO ADVANCE CLIMATE IMPACT; SELECT WORLD INVESTMENT FORUM HIGHLIGHTS

Payne Institute Sustainable Finance Lab Program Manager Brad Handler writes about the 8th World Investment Forum focused on spurring sustainable development across low and middle income economies. The challenges loomed large, as speakers noted that not only were absolute spending levels far short of what was needed to be “on track” to meet energy transition and SDG targets, but that recent spending in the developing world was far too concentrated in select economies. October 25, 2023.

Modular Carbon Capture and The Inflation Reduction Act 10/12/2023

Modular Carbon Capture and The Inflation Reduction Act

Payne Institute Program Manager Anna Littlefield writes about how as the field of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) continues to evolve, the importance of modular carbon capture technologies has become increasingly apparent. August of 2023 marked the one-year anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) being signed into law, and its potential to incentivize smaller-scale capture systems is manifesting in modular capture innovation. October 12, 2023.

STRATEGY AND PLANNING TO REDOUBLE CLIMATE ADAPTATION IN AFRICA 10/1/2023

STRATEGY AND PLANNING TO REDOUBLE CLIMATE ADAPTATION IN AFRICA

Payne Institute Fellow Jamal Saghir, Julia Eichhorn, Daniel Flores, and Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez write about how mounting evidence continues to show that Africa is the most vulnerable continent to the adverse impacts of climate change. Ramping up climate finance flows for adaptation is critical to addressing the irreversible impacts of climate change, but financing alone will not be enough to protect the continent. Having a clear set of priorities, with institutions that have the capacity to plan properly and take adaptation actions at scale, is equally important. October 1, 2023.

The African Climate Summit – Averting the Climate Crisis 9/5/2023

The African Climate Summit – Averting the Climate Crisis

Payne Institute Research Associate Juliet Akamboe and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how climate change poses a significant threat to Africa, a continent already grappling with challenges including poverty and a lack of access to basic human needs like clean water, healthcare, education, jobs and electricity. Africa is already witnessing severe environmental consequences with changing rainfall patterns, severe droughts and extreme weather conditions, which are stalling socio-economic development. The inaugural Africa Climate Summit (ACS) taking place in Nairobi, this week is a great forum to discuss the role Africa can play in bridging the gap between the Global North and South in addressing the climate crisis. September 5, 2023.

NIGER, URANIUM, AND THE COUP D’ETAT 9/1/2023

NIGER, URANIUM, AND THE COUP D’ETAT

Payne Institute ESG Researcher Baba Freeman writes about how the recent coup d’etat in Niger, a key supplier of uranium, has created some level of anxiety in the market and brought forward new questions for stakeholders across the industry and the West African sub-region. The event calls for a fresh look at the potential market impact and the way forward to resolving the current disputation in a manner that preserves Niger’s development agenda, minimizes political risk to investors, and aids the emergence of a more resilient global critical minerals supply chain. September 1, 2023.

Proposed West Africa-Europe Gas Pipelines Will Fail Without a Radical Shift in Thinking

PROPOSED WEST AFRICA-EUROPE GAS PIPELINES WILL FAIL WITHOUT A RADICAL SHIFT IN THINKING

Payne Institute ESG Researcher Baba Freeman writes about how the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 injected a renewed urgency into Western European countries’ energy security concerns and led to an increase in demand for non-Russian sources of oil and gas. Consequently, Europe is expected to take a larger share of future LNG supplies even as greenfield pipeline projects are being conceived to supply West African gas to Western Europe. These projects include the Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline (TSGP) and the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) but may not be able to adequately meet these projects’ future obligations. August 29, 2023.

INVESTORS IN AFRICAN MINING VENTURES MUST REFRESH THEIR RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES

Payne Institute Research Associate Baba Freeman writes about how the frequency of coup d’etats in the Sahel region is troubling and calls for mining investors to refresh their political risk assessment processes. The recent trend of militarization must surely prod investors to further assess the likelihood and possible impact of military interventions and incorporate key takeaways from current events into their risk management tools and processes. While the risk of a total loss of capital due to outright warfare can be assessed deterministically, subjective measures of political instability can substantially impact the “country risk” premium that mining investors must pay over and above the risk-free cost of capital. August 17, 2023.

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN AFRICA: KENYA’S SUCCESS AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATION IN ANGOLA 7/6/23

Renewable Energy in Africa: Kenya’s Success and its Possible Implementation in Angola

Payne Institute student researcher Yara Alexandra Lima writes about how Africa represents some of the world’s largest reserves of both renewable and non-renewable energy sources, however, it accounts for half of the world’s power deficit. Many African countries are working towards developing their energy sector and, consequently, improving their economic, social, and political framework. This paper will discuss the key strategies employed by Kenya to develop its energy sector and increase its electrification rate, and the possibility of applying these policies in other African countries, namely Angola. July 6, 2023.

Rising Costs’ Impact on Renewable Power Generation 6/27/2023

Rising Costs’ Impact on Renewable Power Generation

Payne Institute Program Manager Brad Handler and student researcher Mason Shandy write about how the inflationary pressures that have gripped the global economy over the last 18 months, along with central banks’ efforts to lessen them, are weighing on the economics of building new power generation. Despite recent evidence of some moderation in these inflationary pressures, it is reasonable to expect that they will persist for some time. These higher costs disproportionately impact development of variable renewable energy (VRE), such as wind and solar, and in emerging market (EM) economies. June 27, 2023.

Colorado (CDPHE/AQD) Rule Making Verifying Methane Emissions Reporting 6/5/2023

Colorado (CDPHE/AQD) Rule Making Verifying Methane Emissions Reporting

Payne Institute Faculty Fellow Jim Crompton, and Student Researchers Ebenezer Manful-Sam, Wyatt Lindsey and Pierluigi Nichilo write about how reducing greenhouse gases, especially methane emissions, from oil and gas production activities is one of the major themes of regulatory actions both at state, provincial and federal levels in North America as part of society’s path for addressing climate change. One of the biggest barriers for methane reduction is not financial or technology, but rather a lack of rigorous and transparent data. In 2021, Colorado’s Air Quality Control Commission adopted a rule that limits how much greenhouse gas can be emitted per barrel of oil and gas produced. June 5, 2023.

Ambitious EPA Rules to Face Stark Permitting Reality 5/17/2023

Ambitious EPA Rules to Face Stark Permitting Reality

Payne Institute Program Manager’s Anna Littlefield and Brad Handler, and Director Morgan Bazilian write about how in early May EPA proposed major new carbon emissions standards for coal and many gas-fired electric power plants. Prominent among the options is carbon capture and storage (CCS)—this represents a unique and significant possibility for the technology. The proposal highlights the pressing need to accelerate permitting of CO2 pipelines and injection wells. May 17, 2023.

China’s Consolidation of Rare Earth Elements Sector 5/12/23

China’s Consolidation of Rare Earth Elements Sector

Payne Institute student researcher Tinzar Htun writes about how today China is the biggest global supplier of rare earth elements (REEs), accounting for around 70 percent of global mine production (1.2 million tons) in 2022. More importantly, China holds the dominant role in the downstream process of REE, separating and processing. The partial shutdown of the Lynas facility in Malaysia will grant China near-exclusive control over the production and distribution of REEs in the global market. May 12, 2023.

The Mining Boom is Coming, but Where Can Their Workers Live? 4/28/2023

The Mining Boom is Coming, but Where Can Their Workers Live?

Payne Institute Research Associate Caitlin McKennie writes about how building out a robust talent pipeline for the mining sector through providing quality jobs to workers and advancement opportunities (i.e., training, upskilling, and next skilling efforts) will be a central factor for ramping up domestic critical mineral production and strengthening U.S. energy security. Yet, the labor force associated with nonfuel mineral mining in the U.S. has remained roughly stagnate over the last five years, and aligns with new statistics coming from employers. April 28, 2023.

Applying Post-Quantum Cryptography – Survey and Application of Machine Learning 4/26/23

Applying Post-Quantum Cryptography – Survey and Application of Machine Learning

Payne Institute student researcher Mack Osborne writes about how quantum computing poses a considerable threat in the world of cyber security. Policy makers are largely unprepared for a post-quantum world, significantly due to a lack of understanding and awareness. The goal of this paper is to improve understanding and provide a new and effective way to analyze post-quantum cryptography, for researchers and security engineers alike. April 26, 2023.

Burning Landfill in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan detected by VIIRS Nightfire 4/13/2023

Burning Landfill in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan detected by VIIRS Nightfire

Payne Institute Earth Observation Group Director Christopher Elvidge writes about a landfill burning in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan as seen through the VIIRS Nightfire satellite imaging systems as part of their global monitoring program. April 13, 2023.

Critical Mineral Mining and Sustainable Development in Africa 4/10/23

Critical Mineral Mining and Sustainable Development in Africa

Payne Institute student researcher Mama Nissi Abanga Abugnaba writes about how as a continent with abundant natural resources, such as large reserves of vital minerals, Africa could play a critical role in facilitating the energy transition. This will be possible through a just energy transition that supports the retention of jobs, social aid for affected workers, upskilling of current employees, environmental restoration, and the development of local businesses. April 10, 2023.

The Regulation of CO2 Pipelines and Ensuring Public Safety 3/15/2023

The Regulation of CO2 Pipelines and Ensuring Public Safety

Payne Institute CCUS Program Manager Anna Littlefield and student researcher Dwi Nuraini Siregar write that the 45Q tax credit is anticipated to play an important role in accelerating the expansion of the CO2 pipeline network in the United States by providing a financial incentive for businesses to invest in carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies and supporting infrastructure.The Inflation Reduction Act’s amplification of this credit has already increased the number of CCUS projects. March 15, 2023.

Securing Mineral Supply: Backwards Vertical Integration for Technology Companies 3/9/23

Securing Mineral Supply: Backwards Vertical Integration for Technology Companies

Master of Public Policy, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago student researcher Christian Gaona writes about how the demand for minerals has increased with the growing production of standard technologies, such as EV car batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels. However, major mining companies need help to satisfy the demand at the current rate, leading to inconsistent and expensive supply chains and environmental and geopolitical concerns. Technology companies should consider backward vertical integration strategies to mitigate against risks associated with supply chain issues, which would merge upstream processes essential to companies’ value chains.This article explores how tech companies are best suited to provide the capital and skill sets to overcome the risks associated with mineral extraction and ensure a cleaner, sustainable energy future. March 9, 2023.